Conservative Dems in the Senate

[opebo]

Miami,

I give you credit for conceding that Republicans are likely to gain Senate seats in 2004. That could not have come easy for you!!!

Objectively, I think the Republicans will gain at least two seats and could win as many as six...do you agree?

I'm very confident that Republican pickups will include Georgia, South Carolina, Florida and North Carolina, with potential gains in Louisiana and South Dakota. Also, the Republicans have longshot pickup chances in North Dakota, Nevada, Washington and perhaps even California.

The Democrats have a likely pickup in Illinois and a good chance to pickup Alaska. They also have longshot pickup chances in Oklahoma and Pennsylvania.

What are your thoughts on my analysis?

I think you're right about GA, SC, and NC.  LA and FL are tossups - we'll probably win one.  Places like SD, ND, NV, WA, CA on the Dem side and Alaska, OK, and PA on the Repub side are likely to stay status quo.  And yes we have no chance in IL.  So worst case scenario +2.   I'd say +3 is most likely, but anything beyond that is just wishful thinking.

[opebo]

MarkDel,

Thanks for the informative analysis of Florida politics.  A lot of people on here have said that FL is trending back Republican, but I hadn't seen much detail on why.  I think you're right that between Louisana and Florida we're more likely to pick up the seat in FL.

[opebo]

Knowles probably will win narrowly in Alaska.  I went there this summer and the people were mad at Gov. Murkowski for appointing her unqualified daughter to the senate.

Sheesh, so they're mad enough to shoot themselves in the foot?  If there was ever a state electorate who's interests were served by just one party it is Alaska.  Heck the national Dems want to turn to the whole place in to some sort of bear and reindeer preserve.

[opebo]

Sheesh, so they're mad enough to shoot themselves in the foot?  If there was ever a state electorate who's interests were served by just one party it is Alaska.  Heck the national Dems want to turn to the whole place in to some sort of bear and reindeer preserve.

They already elected Tony Knowles governor, and he was very popular.

I know but its a big difference between electing a governor and electing a Democrat to the Senate - which is the very body that the national Democrats are using to hold back the development of the state.

[opebo]

I know but its a big difference between electing a governor and electing a Democrat to the Senate - which is the very body that the national Democrats are using to hold back the development of the state.

The fact remains, Gov Knowles was elected by the Alaskan people.  Lisa "thank you daddy for this senate seat" Murkowski was not.

Well if they elect Knowles Alaskans will have no one but themselves to blame if the Senate Dems continue to thwart the economic development of the state.