two big reason:
1. the often mentioned rise of the religious right.
2. (and probably most importantly) the state gop party imploded in the 90s (thanks to pete wilson and his anti-immigrant crusade)
im confident the gop can make a comeback in california. there are tons of conservatives and free-marketeers in cali.
You are so right in your #1 - the natural reaction of freedom loving people to the religious right is to vote against them, and that means voting Democrat.
As for the chances of the GOP making a comeback in CA? Nearly zero - the GOP is now the Religious Party, and the Democrats have moved so far rightward economically that they are plenty free-market for Californians. Virtually no chance of the GOP getting CA back.
