Thai army cheif Prayuth: coup cannot be ruled out

[opebo]

Just breaking yesterday:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/387008/coup-possible-if-situation-demands-it-prayuth-says

[opebo]

Reading his actual comments, I don't think he's all that impressed with the Yellows.  If things got worse, he'd consider stepping in, but not so as to put the Yellows into power, but himself.

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In reality the Yellows and the army are just aspects or tools of one Power.

There's nothing novel about his 'middle ground' and 'not taking sides' speech.. Thai generals always talk like that.

What's novel about this situation is, I'm afraid, that the other side might take up arms if the army acts. 

[opebo]

http://news.yahoo.com/thai-army-chief-urges-calm-doesn-39-t-091747388.html

[opebo]

Suthep (Yellows) - we plan to seize all of Bangkok

Also Reds Jatuporn and Nattawut criticize General Prayuth for hinting at a coup, and hint that they're preparing to fight if it occurs.

[opebo]

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Protest-death-toll-rises-to-eight-30223200.html

[opebo]

This picture has been making the rounds on Thai Facebook, with the idea of Thailand breaking into two parts, and having a civil war.  Some of the Reds posting this have referred to the red part as 'People's Republic of Thailand', and the south/Bangkok as 'Kingdom of Siam'...



However I think it greatly exaggerates Red strength.  I think this is a more realistic map, reflecting army strength, and also the fact that only overwhelming Red popular support would equal initial territorial control (that is, a 70% Red province would be out of the army's control, but a 52% one probably wouldn't):



To be honest I'm even quite skeptical that the North would join any fight - they're better off than the Northeast, thinly populated, with a good deal of army strength there along the borders.. and really the main militant red support are Northeasterners.

[opebo]

There isn't going to be a coup, from what he said it sounds as if he was talking to appease people but doesn't really want anything to happen.

No, that's how they talk for a few weeks before doing a coup.  Coups in Thailand don't really require the 'element of surprise' if they're a proper establishment coup (the 3 or so failed coups of the post-war era were not establishment coups, but coups by small breakaway segments of the officer corp).

The Democrats should create policy that pleases the majority of the county instead of trying to steal power.

Not possible. 

- Whats the reason for that small blue enclave in the North-West corner on the first map?

I'm quite sure that is an error

- So its mostly lao-speaking (in one version or other) soldiers that support the Reds? Does this support include the officer corpse?

Red support is mostly not known or not visible in the army, but rather in the political class and the masses in the Northeast and the North.  Many people talk about the lowly soldiers being 'watermelons' - green on the outside, red on the inside, but virtually the entire officer corp is still quite yellow and certainly very royalist.  I'm quite sure that the units prepared (well ahead of time) for coup purposes will be made up almost entirely of Southern and Central soldiers - most certainly not Northerners and particularly not Northeasterners.

Thailand population location:

 

There are about 7 million permanent residents in Bangkok, about 15.5 million in the 'Central Region', about 12.5 million in the North, about 22.5 million in the Northeast, and about 9 million in the South.  So, that gives around 31.5 million in non-red areas, and about 35 million in the 'Red areas'.

Regarding the economic development issue:



Bangkok, the eastern seaboard, and the south are far richer than the Northeast or North.

Finally, but importantly, the man we may not mention is located in Hua Hin, and has been for about 1.5 years, in a special palace surrounded by an army base (he had lived in a hospital in Bangkok for many years, but just before the beginning of these troubles he moved to Hua Hin):

[opebo]

Speaking of he who may not be named, what effect will the inevitable succession have on Thai politics when it does take place? 

Could be quite disastrous...