Early 2016 Base Map

[opebo]

I think you got it just about exactly right, except for the shadings, particularly the shading in Maine.  But I do think it is quite possible VA could be lean Dem and/or PA tossup, its very close in both cases.

As for Arkansas, its really solid except for some possible Hillary effect, who can say if that would actually materialize or not..

[opebo]

Interesting.. Arkansas and Missouri are fairly similar demographically, but MO has a PVI of R+5, while Arkansas has a PVI of R+14. Do you think that Hillary's popularity in AR might manifest itself more significantly in Missouri?

No, not really.  I don't think she's all that popular in Missouri.  I think Arkansas is just the kind of extremely overlooked woebegone place where people might, rarely, set aside their ideological/racial/cultural preferences to vote for someone they perceive as 'connected to them' or 'having them in mind'.  Missouri is really much more of a standard Midwestern state, with a large city/rural+right-leaning suburbs balance that is in my opinion much more stable.

[opebo]

Barf, Waukeesha, why do you post those overly Republican-biased maps?

[opebo]

Barf, Waukeesha, why do you post those overly Republican-biased maps?

Mine is not partisan, it is completely based off a the trends of states and the 2012 election. It just seems partisan because we've had many more D victories so it seems ridiculous to put Michigan as a lean D instead of Strong D, etc. My map is assuming a tie in the popular vote.

Yes, Michigan as lean-D is reasonable, but you put it as a tossup!

Barf, Waukeesha, why do you post those overly Republican-biased maps?

I felt like I left it as open as I could. It's 2013. Which GOP states of mine would you have as toss up?

None of them, buddy.  But you put Washington as a toss-up!

[opebo]

Yes, Michigan as lean-D is reasonable, but you put it as a tossup!

Read My Message! I originally said that anything that leans is in Toss-Up mode for now, then I crossed that off and said Toss-Up = Lean D/Lean R.

Well, thanks for the explanation. 

Along with MI, MN, OR, ME, DE, and NJ I'd have to at this point. It's 2013 and 3 and a half years away from the general election. It's just too early.

It really isn't too early to know that its about 98+% likely Washington's going D and Georgia's going R.

[opebo]

Michigan's a tossup while North Carolina leans Republican?  Utter biased nonsense.

Here's a much more realistic map, removing all tossups:

[opebo]

With current trends evaluated, 2016?

That's fine, but given the previous 3-4 maps you posted there, your final map represents wishful thinking about NH, CO, WI, IA, and PA - they're all clearly slightly lean D.

[opebo]

That's fine, but given the previous 3-4 maps you posted there, your final map represents wishful thinking about NH, CO, WI, IA, and PA - they're all clearly slightly lean D.

I was thinking that the republican trend with white voters might put those states in play, they're all just slightly tilted left of the nation by 1 or 2 points. Just like I thought the democratic trend with Hispanic voters would tip NM to likely D, in 2008 and 2012 it was at the edge of lean D.

I'm not sure there's such a clear long term trend with the whites, more just a marked difference between '08 and '12 based mostly on '08 being the abnormal outlier. 

[opebo]

2000: Bush 55%, Gore 42% (13% win) + Gore Win by 0.5% = R+13.5%
2004: Bush 58%, Kerry 41% (17% win) + Bush win by 2.4% = R+14.6%
2008: McCain 55%, Obama 43% (12% win) + Obama win by 7.2% = R+19.2%
2012: Romney 59%, Obama 39% (20% win) + Obama win by 3.9% = R+23.9%

Is this not clear enough?

Obama's black.

[opebo]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Really? So you really think half the country is just racist? Its really unacceptable that you or many other liberal democrats can't accept the fact the racism is dying off. It's also too bad that they want (yes, that's right) racism in this country so they can keep blaming the GOP for racism. It's too bad you can't just accept the trend and make excuses to offset the reality.

I'm sorry if this was a strong reaction but these kind of excuses have got to stop.

But the racists who are dying off are also the Republicans who are dying off, WC.  They're your lifeblood.

[opebo]

WC I never said the GOP wouldn't have some successes, I just said they're racist.

[opebo]

Doesn't really make a lot of sense to put Michigan as less D leaning than Minnesota.. unless you're thinking of some elasticity analysis.  MI was way more D in 2012 than MN.

[opebo]

barfbag, you have Georgia as more of a base GOP state than Tennessee?!

[opebo]

It isn't a far fetched idea when you consider that Hillary Clinton will [most likely] be the Democratic nominee.

You're quite right the antiwoman party has problems with women, but this is the most Democratic-friendly map that makes sense to me: