A black can't win a close election

[opebo]

I'm afraid that Obama's election in 2008 was entirely about voters in the middle (virtually all of whom are white of course) choosing to vote for him despite their preference for a white, because of an overwhelming reason - the Republicans had just destroyed the economy.

Now, in 2012, there is no overwhelming reason to vote for a black (of course, the Republicans will destroy the economy again, eventually, but this is impossible for most swing voters to understand). Without the overwhelming reason of a crisis or a white opponent who is clearly antipathetic to them, there is no way that these white working class voters will preference a black.

As Politico has said, all Romney needed to do was appear 'not a monster', and he is right, though he doesn't give the right reason.  The reason is racism.  White working class swing voters flirted with voting Obama when Romney was seen as the epitome of the class which is destroying them, but now that they saw him, a white man in a suit, lying well and in a soothing tone, next to a black - well, its all over with them.

The key is - seeing a black next to a white.  It is that simple I'm afraid:

[opebo]

Just relax... I'm actually pretty confident you're going to be proven wrong... just as you were in 2008...

Thanks, but that was as I say a kind of overwhelming wave - a wave that gave them a reason to set aside their racism for a moment.  That's not the case now.  I think I'm right.  Oh despair.

[opebo]

I won't bother digging for it but I'm pretty sure you probably said a black man wouldn't be elected to the presidency before the last election.

Anywho, stop trolling, and everyone else just stop feeding him.

Its a valid analysis and a reasonable prediction, Dibble.  Just because I was wrong before doesn't mean my new theory isn't right.

I'm not the only one saying it.  Chris Matthews agrees./[url]  (I actually found this article after I arrived at my own conclusions)

[opebo]

What if Herman Cain was running against Obama?  Would that cancel each other out?

Obviously that would have been a very poor strategy, n'est-ce pas?

[opebo]

Actually, empirical evidence shows that, to the extent that there is a statistical effect, a black candidate running against a white candidate is more likely to win a close election than the white candidate.

That depends entirely upon the nature of the electorate.  That paper focuses on congressional and urban elections.  State-by-state there are simply not enough states where the whites are either non-racist (think Oregon), or overwhelmed by larger minority groups (think New Mexico) to add up to a victory.

[opebo]

First of all, I don't know of any particular reason why one arbitrary unit of space (a congressional district) should be different from another (a state), especially since they didn't just consider minority-majority districts. Second, the paper found the starkest advantage for blacks in close interracial elections in the South--what you'd probably consider to be the most racist of electorates. The reasoning is differential turnout patterns in interracial elections.

Obviously it all comes down to how big a minority of the whites are willing to vote for the Black.  So, this unusual type of white is perhaps more common in certain small regions than in, say a whole state.  The point is - it isn't going to work in Ohio, or Virginia, or Florida.

[opebo]

A old timer in my office today referred to Obama as "that shine"........opebo might have it right

Thanks Gramps.  Its only on the right that people are willing to look at the white american for what he is.

[opebo]

That class and racial lens through which you view the world is distorting your judgment is my opinion opebo. Not that it matters, I consider Obama being black and plus, and I am turning against him having voted for him in 2008. I know, that is because of my class, right? The lens cannot be deflected; it's hard wired, at least as a performance act. Thanks for listening.

Referring to oddballs does does not make a critique of the validity of my thesis, Torie, your good self included.   The white working class is a more prodigious and predictable piece of the pie than the pink pot smoking Pubbie.

[opebo]

Last time I checked, he white as a sheet living Thailand and believed Obama would lose in 2008, because he believed middle America was too racist...

Hey Opebo Obama is polling +95% of Blacks just over 70% of Hispanics and probably at least 60% of Asians.

He probably can squeak a win out with a meager 37.5% of the white vote if it comes down to it.

Oh god I hope not. Talk about a racially charged election. I think Obama will stay above 40% of the white vote.

I am as pale as pale can be.  A real american of the first water.  White, but drenched in blood (Granddad washed it off but it can still be detected with that blue light, I think.  Historians use it).

But there is no way Obama gets 40% of the whites.  30-35% is more likely.

[opebo]

Opebo is clearly very intelligent and informed.  Do not discuss his argument out of hand. 

The Democrats have the black vote wrapped up.  This is a fact, and the Dems have been taking advantage of blacks for generations, knowing they get their votes no matter what.

I believe the reason the vast majority of whites will not be voting for a black is that they will not be voting for this particular black, because of his utter incompetence and obvious inability to deal effectively with the economy.     

no, what  you're saying has nothing to do with my argument.

[opebo]

...I believe that is the reason whites will support Romney, because of his ability to improve the economy.

No, they don't know anything about that.  They see white face and black face.

[opebo]

Closeness would seem to factor in the racism.  I'm not sure there's a lot of people who would just say, "Well sh**, I don't know, guess I'll vote against the n****r."  Seems like that group would have decided, against, sooner.

Not at all, Glob, not at all.  There are lots of working class whites who will consider voting for a black even though they dislike blacks very strongly.  They did so in 2008 due to the overwhelming wave of revulsion for the GOP because it had just destroyed the economy (and in particular the lives of these self-same racist working class whites). 

These same people flirted heavily with voting for Obama because Romney is such an obviously offensive plutocrat/class-enemy with nothing but disdain for them.  However as soon as they saw him standing there next to The Black, that sealed it for them. 

I can understand that you don't know anything about this particular class of people, but I do, alas for me: this is just the sort who abound in Missouri, particularly in the southern half of the St. Louis metro area.

[opebo]

Such is a consequence of the war on whites.

There's no war on whites.

There is, however, a war on non-whites, which amounts to the same thing - whites vote for the right-wing candidate, and non-whites (and amusingly, nearly all whites as well) are oppressed.