"new" suburban voters

[opebo]

Dazzleman's right, the isolation from crime, poor people, and other social problems in the suburbs is one thing that allows them to vote Democratic.  I think this is mostly true of very upper-middle-class-to-wealthy and Northeastern suburbs in particular.  In Missouri the suburbs are quite Republican.  I think the key is a combination of social and economic issues.  In the Northeast and parts of the West Coast, suburbanites are socially liberal and also seem to have a sort of sense of liberal economic guilt, perhaps due to their high incomes.  In the Midwest, South, and Mountain areas suburbanites are generally more moderate-income (a decent house is 200K there), and are more culturally conservative.  Also, the farthest out, newest suburbs - exurbs? - tend to be very Republican.  However, I think that all suburbs will trend more Republican in 2004 because of terrorism - a general realization that it really matters to *their own interests* who they vote for.

[opebo]

Rich suburbs will be among the few places to go Republican in 2004. The trend towards Republicans in rural counties is history.

Not so.  Unless by trend you mean the percentage win will not be any higher than in the past - that may be so.  Bush may be stuck at 75% or so in the rural areas.  But his winning the vast majority of rural votes is not in any doubt.  Same is true further down the ticket.  Rural voters gave us the Senate in 2002.  In my state Senator Talent barely scraped a victory on the back of huge majorites in rural and outer suburban counties while losing massively in the cities.  And he's a city boy!  But a Republican one..

As far as possible arguments to the contrary, I'd say the only good one I can think of is that most military personel are from the rural areas.  If casualties have a political impact it would be here.  Obviously the other source of recruits - the inner city - is going Dem anyway.  But I don't think casualties have the potential to shift the rural vote more than a couple of points.