Can Liz Truss still beat George Canning?

[Sestak]

So, of course, for this to happen, first of all, the Conservative leadership election next week clearly cannot be allowed to resolve cleanly; if it does then Truss leaves office not even reaching half of Canning's tenure.

However, during the leadup to this leadership election we have seen several MPs threaten to defect from the party depending on the outcome of the leadership. Assume this happens; furthermore assume that there are enough defections to deny the resulting leader a Commons majority. We then enter a truly hung parliament; if no one can muster a majority from this point onward it will force a dissolution. The UK would then enter an election campaign...presumably with Truss continuing to serve as caretaker PM.


Now, to match Canning Truss needs to make it until Jan 2. General elections are generally a Thursday, so she would need this election to occur on Jan 5 at the earliest. Apparently 25 business days need to pass between dissolution and an election; so that 25 day mark needs to be reached on Dec 30 or later. 25 business days before that (noting that Dec 26 and Nov 30 are bank holidays) would be November 23.

Now, of course, December 29 is a rather ugly election date; let's say that having the election between Christmas and New Year's is a little bit too unpalatable. In this case, of course, we only need the dissolution to occur on or after November 17.

So of course this only leaves one main question: whether, in the above scenario, there is any possible sequence of events in which it takes a full three weeks between the end of the leadership election (Oct 28) and a dissolution of Parliament (Nov 17 or later)? If someone can come up with one, I'd say she's definitely still in it. She's a fighter, not a quitter.