State Reporting Patterns (user search)
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  State Reporting Patterns (search mode)
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Author Topic: State Reporting Patterns  (Read 751 times)
Sestak
jk2020
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« on: May 05, 2018, 01:44:27 PM »

I'm not sure if this is the place to put it, but I'd like someplace where we could have a record of what each state's election return reporting pattern is. Some are more common knowledge (VA is NoVa last, PA is Philly first and county seats first in each county), but others not so much. Is there any comprehensive list/guide to this? If not, I guess we could make one in this thread based on the sum total knowledge of the forum...
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Sestak
jk2020
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Posts: 13,296
Ukraine


« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2018, 12:24:42 AM »

Dramatic Democratic bias in early returns: PA, IL, OH, AL
Dramatic Republican bias: VA, GA, CA, NY

Possible Dem bias: MI, AZ, TX, NC, FL (due to central time in Panhandle)
Possible Rep bias: NY, MD, AK, KY


Pretty sure AL returned the Dem vote last in 2017.

Also doesn't Wayne report last in MI?
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Sestak
jk2020
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Posts: 13,296
Ukraine


« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2018, 02:00:36 AM »

Dramatic Democratic bias in early returns: PA, IL, OH, AL
Dramatic Republican bias: VA, GA, CA, NY

Possible Dem bias: MI, AZ, TX, NC, FL (due to central time in Panhandle)
Possible Rep bias: NY, MD, AK, KY


Pretty sure AL returned the Dem vote last in 2017.

Also doesn't Wayne report last in MI?



You're reading that wrong because the lines flipped at the last moment. The solid line is the NYT estimate, look at the confidence intervals. The DOTTED line is the actual returns.
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