MS Megathread: Hyde-Smith wins by 8

[Sestak]

Are we sure the special will be this year and not in 2019?

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Presley follows you?


Also YEEESSSSS!

[Sestak]

Take note:

PA-18: D+11
MS-AL: D+9

[Sestak]

And there we go!

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/974028345527685121

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Please somebody run against this guy.

I hope Baria switches here

Either that or another Republican enter the race.

The governor is going to appoint a Republican into the seat, but there is a very good chance that McDaniels is able to beat whatever Republican is appointed in a primary.

Primary is top two blanket nonpartisan, so it depends on the Dem(s) as well.

[Sestak]

According to article, McConnell wanted a woman picked in order to improve the party's brand. Same with Alabama as well.

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If one more Republican comes in on a different niche we may actually have a chance at an Espy vs Presley runoff

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Prediction: CHS breaks 60.

[Sestak]

Yankee, if you’re reading this thread, is the counting bias within counties or a result of which counties come first? Or both?

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Yeah this really just looks like counting bias.

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In fact I’d still rather be CHS at this point.

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It is gradually starting to get more meaningful though... There are now results from 4 different counties, and Espy is overperforming substantially in EVERY single one of them.

That’s generally how intracounty counting biases work, yes.

[Sestak]

If Espy hits 45, I would be THRILLED.

If he is under 40, I would be disappointed.

If he hits 40% in Mississippi, I will be thanking my stars!

I'm a Democrat through and through, but there is just no way he does that good in a state as red as Mississippi. Plus, we don't have the big "blue wave" hype running nationwide this time like we did Nov 6th.

Maybe I'll be wrong, but 40% for a Democrat in Miss would feel like a miracle.

Hillary hit 40.1, so...

[Sestak]

Warren county is now 15 of 23 precincts reporting, and Espy leads by 11 points....

Trump won that county by 3 in 2016.

15 of 23 still isn’t enough to extrapolate.

[Sestak]

Yep, as we guessed, it may be close but CHS seems to have this.

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CHS has 71% in Yahoo County, which voted for Hillary. This is over.

[Sestak]

More from Silver:

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Seems like the more relevant comparison would be the D total vote (both Espy and Bartee), wouldn't it?

Is that saying he needs to overperform an an additional 9.4 points, or by around 1 point?

9.4 from 11/6. 1 more from current.

[Sestak]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

Candidate   Party   Votes   Pct.
Cindy Hyde-Smith*
Republican
150,897   55.8%
Mike Espy
Democrat
119,727   44.2
270,624 votes, 38% reporting (680 of 1,797 precincts)

Ok Espy better win now.

[Sestak]

Espy down to 40 in DeSoto with one precinct out.

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DeSoto done. 59-41, from 65-34 on 11/6.

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The hysterical overreactions in this thread earlier with like 2 precincts reporting were/are embarrassing.

And this was even after several (well-established) posters warned of counting bias.

[Sestak]

The hysterical overreactions in this thread earlier with like 2 precincts reporting were/are embarrassing.

And this was even after several (well-established) posters warned of counting bias.

There's no counting bias in Mississippi, at least not a D one. Espy has spent the last hour down double-digits but will end up losing by around 8 or so once Jackson and the Delta come in.

I meant counting bias within each county. County reporting order does seem to have R bias.