WV is glued to Manchin. No surprise. NEXT!
In more serious terms, given the High-grade popularity Senator Manchin has (and the unpopularity of the JJ party swap), he has the best chances of the Uber-GOP state US Senators to win reelection,
compared to the rest up next year(and no Paula Jean can ever change that).
Surprisingly enough, Morissey appears quite strong in this poll. Time will tell if he is on the upward trend in momentum, or this is a poll botch.
Anyway, Manchin has his seat in the bag, at least until 2024. Senator Manchin is far too popular for such a loss.
a. He remained pro-life and pro-gun rights, and
b. Polarization wasn't as strong
then I'd agree. But he's still a vote for Chuck Schumer, and has changed on some issues, so the seat is in play. Interesting to see how well Morrisey does compared to Jenkins. Still think Stupid Alex does not actually run, and if he does and somehow wins the primary, he would lose badly.
That doesn't matter as much as we think it does. A lot of people will vote for someone of the other party if they think that person is doing a good job or will do a good job. Senators are more than a vote for their party leader, and voters are well aware of this. After all, he was a reliable vote against every hideously unpopular Trumpcare bill, while Capito was not.
This, and Manchin tends to hold positions and work to the right of, say Richard Blumenthal.
The way I see it, one needs three (and possibly a fourth) primary aspects to have a seat in an area that is in favor of their opposition:
1: Be Bipartisan
2: Have a strong Public Record
3: People need to know your name
4: Opposition needs to be a flop
1: Manchin seems to have a very centrist vote record, notably voting for Mnunchin and Pruitt
2: 6 years as governor and almost 8 years as senator is a strong record, no?
3: See #2, 2 helps with #3
4: John Raese is an ultra formidable candidate, and is in the top tier of republicans nationwide! (Sarcasm)
Given how 4 is going to be a major question, Manchin seems to be doing fine, hence why #4 is optional in my book.
