MS: Rasmussen: McCain up by 6%

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44% is indeed Obama's absolute ceiling.

McCain wins by low double digits.

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Believe me, Muscrove doesn't want Obama anywhere near Mississippi.  He'll need at least one third of the white vote to eek out a win.  He doesn't want to be tied to Obama.

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I think my point was that Musgrove can't win on black votes.  He needs substantially more white votes than Kerry got to get 50 + 1.  Being too closely tied to Obama will not get that done (very counterproductive) hence I said Obama going to Mississippi would be an obvious political mistake.  Musgrove already has the black vote.  He needs whites.  Of course some of you Obama koolaiders probably think the guy ought to cut commercials touting his support for Obama.  Uh, it won't work in Mississippi fellas and I'm pretty sure Obama isn't going to get any frantic phone calls from Musgrove requesting Barack to appear with him in Biloxi.

As far as the Obama 278 max I stand by that.  In other words I'm not buying Obama winning Florida, NC, Va, Mo stuff which flies around this board.  The 278 actually gives him Colorado, NM, Iowa, and Nevada along with the other Kerry states.  So no Brittain, my numbers didn't come out of my ass.

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I gave you my math on the 278 Brittain.  I thought that was what you wanted.

Quit being a dick.

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You're 298 is my 278+Ohio.  That's a difference of one state.

Not Obama's best case? It is unless you really think Obama has a realistic shot at Virginia, NC, Missouri, ND, Montana, Georgia, Alaska etc, etc.  I simply maintain it's very uphill for Obama in any of those states just like it would be very uphill for McCain in, say, Michigan.

Realistically, I think his ceiling is 278 although you could indeed make an argument that Obama wins Ohio and captures the 298.  We can reasonably disagree over Ohio.

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Let's get out of the early summer period and see how it shakes out.  Right now, few are focused unlike this board.