Lousisana Governor's race

[sethm0]

 Jindal will win. The question is whether it will go to a runoff or not. My gut says that it will not - Jindal will finish somewhere in the 50s or low 60s on the first ballot. I do hope that it goes to a runoff though, as Jindal is way too conservative for me.

 The legislature is more interesting. For example, the Democrats now hold a 20-seat lead in the House, but due to their self-imposed term limits, 26 Democrats will be forced to retire after this session. Even if the Democrats keep a slim majority, several of their members would probabyl switch parties under a Republican Governor. If Jindal has serious coattails, Democrats could easily lose a 20 seat majority in one election!

 I'm thinking that won't happen - Democrats will keep the majority by about 10 or so. But we shall see...

[sethm0]

 I actually think that Dem ad isn't bad. It's totally dirty and underhanded, but this is Louisiana politics we're talking about.

 Remember that the reason Jindal lost last time is because he underperformed in Northern LA. This ad won't make that happen again, but still not a bad commercial.