Minnesota is a "lucky" state. It's been voting Democrat since 1976, but not by overwhelming margins. Granted, Trump has been closest to flipping it since Ronald Reagan in 1984. I think Minnesota will eventually go Republican, then go solid red by 2032.
Minnesota is not going to go red. Trump had a perfect window to win and still did not win Minnesota. As a resident, here is what I can say.
1. Minnesota is wealthy. Whole parts of the upscale suburbs that were essentially Rockefeller Republicans through the post-war era have turned Democratic. Minnesota has a lot of old and new money that essentially all Democratic now.
2. We are the destination for a 7-state area of rural kids who are seeking a trendy city life. As places on the coast get more expensive, this will increase further. These people are almost uniformly college educated and liberal.
3. We have had some losses due to the loss of small farmers and due to working-class drift from the party. However, there are still good chunks of rural Minnesota that are liberal due to union history, strong farming, etc. Some areas are even going blue because they are so scenic and being taken over by more wealthy retirees.
4. The DFL is great at retail politics and signalling on issues as diverse as equal rights and prescription drugs. Our governor, Dayton, is kind of awkward but a nice guy. He is a WASP who's family founded Target, but I have seen him at events talking to old farmers, Native tribes, urban elites, and he is very warm and connects with people.
5. I feel Trump missed here partially because of we had already elected a non-establishment, non-politician (Jesse Ventura) as Governor, and we learned our lesson that that is not a good thing. The rest of the country- took them 6 months to learn with Trump.
