Pure Toss-up. On-paper, the reason that Smith lost last time was Ventura County: she would've won the new boundaries by ~4K, so now that they're no longer in the district, Smith can beat Garcia. But, it's also a GOP-friendly environment rn, & in light of Garcia's incumbency too, we may as well be back to square one: a very close race decided by a few hundred votes.
Garcia was seen as a moderate in general in 2020, a benefit he is unlikely to get again due to his votes to decertify the 2020 election. I feel comfortable saying that Smith would be a slight favorite this time.
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