If Todd Akin doesn't make his stupid remark about abortion and rape, he probably wins the election. Without Akin's remarks setting a national narrative, Richard Murdock's remarks in Indiana on the same subject don't get the same amount of attention, and he wins that race.
That's two more Republican senators in 2012 - 2018, meaning the ACA is presumably repealed in 2017, possibly leading to a big backlash in 2018?? Alternatively, the butterflies could lead to a different strategy from Hillary in 2016 and she doesn't choke away the election.
Uh, Todd Akins gaffe did not suddenly turn a win for him into a 16 point loss. He was definitely headed for defeat even before he made such a gaffe.
