Why did Clinton do so well in Orange County,CA? (user search)
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  Why did Clinton do so well in Orange County,CA? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Why did Clinton do so well in Orange County,CA?  (Read 2101 times)
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,757


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

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« on: June 02, 2019, 09:34:15 PM »

Better question: why did Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry, and Barack Obama do so poorly in Orange County, California?
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,757


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #1 on: June 02, 2019, 09:36:33 PM »

She did WAY better in Orange County than Obama both time. Even in 2008 when Obama was winning states like Indiana and North Carolina he still lost Orange County.

Even in 2008, Obama still failed to even prevent McCain from taking a majority.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,757


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #2 on: June 03, 2019, 12:28:43 PM »

She did WAY better in Orange County than Obama both time. Even in 2008 when Obama was winning states like Indiana and North Carolina he still lost Orange County.

Even in 2008, Obama still failed to even prevent McCain from taking a majority.

Vietnamese vote saved him.

Turns out calling em the G word gets them to vote for you.

Wow; apparently, the Vietnamese American vote went from 67% for McCain in 2008 to 54% for Romney in 2012 to 32% for Trump in 2016. Fast shifting demographic.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,757


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #3 on: June 03, 2019, 12:45:52 PM »
« Edited: June 03, 2019, 12:50:35 PM by #Kavanaugh For Prison »

Better question: why did Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry, and Barack Obama do so poorly in Orange County, California?

The demographics of Orange County had not shifted to the point where a Democrat could win, and the GOP candidates ran on more traditional fiscally conservative platforms that resonated with voters in the county at the time.

Exactly.  People underestimate how statistically little has to change for the end result to look drastically different.  When you take an evenly slightly significant demographic change and give it four more years every time and then ALSO have a decent shift in former Republican-voting people, you will actually have a very large swing once those two things are added together.

Orange County was not behaving really anything like that. It was alternating from 2000-2016 at least between having a large Democratic trend and a small Republican trend each time. Look at the trend maps for 2012 and 2004 in the County on atlas for example. Based on wikipedia, this alternating trend sequence goes back to 1992.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,757


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #4 on: June 03, 2019, 12:55:49 PM »

She did WAY better in Orange County than Obama both time. Even in 2008 when Obama was winning states like Indiana and North Carolina he still lost Orange County.

Even in 2008, Obama still failed to even prevent McCain from taking a majority.

Vietnamese vote saved him.

Turns out calling em the G word gets them to vote for you.

Wow; apparently, the Vietnamese American vote went from 67% for McCain in 2008 to 54% for Romney in 2012 to 32% for Trump in 2016. Fast shifting demographic.

Yeah Mccain had some really good ties with the Vietnamese community. Fighting in South Vietnam helps when they are mostly an anti communist demographic. One of the craziest shifts.

I do not understand why fighting in South Vietnam would help a candidate with the Vietnamese-American vote honestly. South Vietnam was just as much a dictatorship as North Vietnam was, if not worse.
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