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June 02, 2024, 08:03:51 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  Post Random Maps Here 2.0. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Post Random Maps Here 2.0.  (Read 211871 times)
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,760


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #50 on: January 26, 2018, 10:32:35 PM »


Reagan wins by 6% less than in our time line.

Reagan - 498
Mondale - 40
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,760


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #51 on: January 26, 2018, 10:59:12 PM »
Quote from: MB on January 26, 2018, 10:56:00 PM
1996 if every Perot vote went to Dole

Bob Dole/Jack Kemp 288
Bill Clinton/Al Gore 250

The closest state is Wisconsin, which is Clinton 48.81% (1,071,971) and Dole 48.83% (1,072,368).

Also, Clinton still wins the popular vote in this.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,760


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #52 on: January 27, 2018, 09:56:16 AM »


Reagan loses by 7.88%.

Reagan - 122
Mondale - 416
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,760


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #53 on: January 27, 2018, 10:50:21 AM »


This is based on a meme, but slightly edited.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,760


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #54 on: January 28, 2018, 12:02:00 PM »


Bush 2004 (in Red) vs Trump 2016 (in Blue)

Closest state was Idaho which was decided by 180 votes.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,760


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #55 on: January 31, 2018, 05:06:56 PM »
Switch Oregon and New Mexico.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,760


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #56 on: February 02, 2018, 10:15:07 PM »
« Edited: February 02, 2018, 10:18:02 PM by Solid4096 »


The state of the race at 21:59:59 on November 3rd 2020, just a single second before Trump is declared the loser.

Rep      : 104
Dem      : 268
Undecided:  57
Open     : 109
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,760


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #57 on: February 04, 2018, 06:16:25 PM »
« Edited: February 04, 2018, 06:35:27 PM by Solid4096 »


4% of the 2 party vote is switched from Trump to Clinton.

Clinton wins NPV by 9.61%
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,760


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #58 on: February 04, 2018, 06:56:40 PM »


2.5% of the 2 party vote is switched from Trump to Clinton.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,760


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #59 on: February 06, 2018, 05:03:53 PM »
If Democrats are gaining 4 Senate Seats, then they are gaining more than 62 House seats.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,760


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #60 on: February 07, 2018, 10:00:47 PM »
Quote from: Jalawest2 on February 07, 2018, 06:56:41 PM
If only counties that never voted for Reagan voted
   

Clinton wins 483-31, 66.9% to 28.9%.

Do this for Nixon pls?
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,760


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #61 on: February 11, 2018, 07:28:23 PM »
Quote from: bagelman on February 11, 2018, 07:21:33 PM


Search interest Sanders vs. Clinton from May 2015 through June 2016.



What does Gray mean?

Also, I notice that the former Confederate States was a large cluster of more Clinton search interest (I wonder what it says about Clinton primary supporters when her strongest states were the former Confederate States), and it appears to extend into Maryland and Delaware for some reason, while not extending anywhere else.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,760


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #62 on: February 11, 2018, 07:36:58 PM »
Quote from: bagelman on February 11, 2018, 07:30:31 PM
Quote from: Solid4096 on February 11, 2018, 07:28:23 PM
Quote from: bagelman on February 11, 2018, 07:21:33 PM
snip

Search interest Sanders vs. Clinton from May 2015 through June 2016.



What does Gray mean?

Also, I notice that the former Confederate States was a large cluster of more Clinton search interest (I wonder what it says about Clinton primary supporters when her strongest states were the former Confederate States), and it appears to extend into Maryland and Delaware for some reason, while not extending anywhere else.

Ties. (This is from google trends, all of the tied states were colored but I decided to make them gray)

I considered making that remark as well, always like to throw shade at Clinton, but I remembered the reason is likely a higher black population.

Oh - and DC is supposed to be absent as I couldn't see data for it, my mistake. 

I tried to replicate your trends data search, and it gave me a map where every state searched more for Sanders than Clinton?
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,760


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #63 on: February 16, 2018, 01:01:15 PM »
Something to do with state names and the alphabet?
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,760


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #64 on: February 18, 2018, 07:49:58 PM »
Quote from: Cath on February 18, 2018, 07:44:55 PM
Quote from: America's Sweetheart ❤ on February 18, 2018, 07:37:38 PM
Quote from: bagelman on February 18, 2018, 03:32:38 PM


307-224 GOP

1912 election. Moderately progressive Republican incumbent defeats a Democratic candidate always flip flopping between prairie populism and business. The Democrat was rumored to be a secret member of the Mormon church, considered a cult by the GOP campaign.
Virginia should be (Atlas) red here. it was definitely a part of the Solid South around this time period even if the margins were a bit smaller than in the deepest parts of Dixie.

He's pretty obviously just using a reversed 2012 map and attempting to explain it a hundred years prior.

Florida
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,760


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #65 on: February 19, 2018, 11:21:27 AM »


guess
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,760


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #66 on: February 19, 2018, 11:42:50 AM »

There is actually a complex level of logic to this map, based solely on real elections.

Also, same logic, used in a different topic leads to this map:
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,760


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #67 on: February 19, 2018, 11:46:31 AM »


This map should be a strong hint towards what you are looking for, since it was produced using the same logic as the other 2.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,760


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #68 on: February 19, 2018, 01:53:09 PM »
Quote from: Jalawest2 on February 19, 2018, 01:40:08 PM
Quote from: Solid4096 on February 19, 2018, 11:42:50 AM

There is actually a complex level of logic to this map, based solely on real elections.

Also, same logic, used in a different topic leads to this map:


Senators and Governors with a moderate democratic swing in 2014.

It is a 6 point swing in 2014 + a 9 point swing in 2016, all swings based on the 2-party vote, not the total vote.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,760


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #69 on: February 20, 2018, 10:26:17 PM »
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,760


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #70 on: February 21, 2018, 05:08:17 PM »
https://www.270towin.com/maps/wvG3D

PVI based
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,760


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #71 on: February 26, 2018, 09:36:04 PM »
what about Arizona?
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,760


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #72 on: March 02, 2018, 09:34:48 AM »
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,760


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #73 on: March 03, 2018, 07:25:47 PM »


The 12 states that swung the most to Trump.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,760


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #74 on: March 08, 2018, 08:45:58 PM »


I flipped as many states as I could; ND and SD stay R because too hard to flip them without making a very tiny state.

New England stays D because too much packing.

Alaska and Hawaii stay R/D because they are non-contiguous.

DC stays D because I felt like leaving it alone.

Proof
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