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June 10, 2024, 03:22:13 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  Post Random Maps Here 2.0. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Post Random Maps Here 2.0.  (Read 212682 times)
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,767


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #25 on: December 08, 2017, 08:03:14 PM »
Quote from: razze on December 08, 2017, 07:54:21 PM
It's oddly satisfying to see a blue-Democrat red-Republican map on this forum for once

Blame wikipedia, and how they use that color scheme, and people are using wikipedia stuff as baselines.  I wish wikipedia would switch to Red=Dem and Blue=Pub.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,767


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #26 on: December 10, 2017, 09:47:10 PM »
Quote from: The Govanah Jake on December 10, 2017, 09:10:18 PM
Quote from: WestVegeta on December 10, 2017, 07:47:12 PM
Here's my iCivics run.

The winner was Senator Nathan W. Blair (me), a Moderate Democrat from West Virginia whose populist-ish positions on retirement security, fiscal responsibility (with regard to large corporations), healthcare access (by way of a public option system, billed as "BlairCare"), and government transparency shot him to victory by taking the Rust Belt. Sizable turnouts in minority communities in Florida and (especially the Hispanic population) in Texas led to shocking gains there, as well.

Meanwhile, the Republican candidate ran on a fiscally-conservative but socially-moderate platform a la Mitt Romney, which, while praised for sticking to his guns, led to the dwindling population of conservative boomers to vote for the Democrat, who begrudgingly supported the legal right to abortion but advocated for "giving you every reason not to that the government can."

The selection of Sarah Patel, a former senator and Iraq vet-turned-UN Ambassador, as Blair's VP was credited with shoring support in minorities and a decent fraction of veterans.



Sen. Nathan Blair/Amb. Sarah Patel (D-WV/MO): 340 EVs
Gov. Steven Fisher/Sen. Maria Ramirez (R-VT/NV): 198 EVs

I can see that game is not very fond of creating electorally sane maps.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,767


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #27 on: December 13, 2017, 04:42:13 PM »

since no one guessed this correctly, I will tell:

this is the states where candidates can win congressional primary elections with a plurality, and states where it triggers a primary runoff.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,767


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #28 on: December 14, 2017, 04:59:25 PM »
« Edited: December 14, 2017, 05:02:16 PM by Solid4096 »
2018 Senate Elections delivers Democrats a narrow majority due to Trump being unpopular.



Democrat: 51 (+2)
Republican: 49 (-2)

2020 Presidential Election results in Kirsten Gillibrand winning in a near-landslide, more Democrat gains in Senate.



Democrat: 56 (+5)
Republican: 44 (-5)



Gillibrand/Merkley: 399
Trump/Pence: 139

2022 Senate Elections give Democrats more gains, as Gillibrand manages to remain popular.



Democrat: 61 (+5)
Republican: 39 (-5)
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,767


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #29 on: December 17, 2017, 01:58:24 PM »
« Edited: December 17, 2017, 02:01:00 PM by Solid4096 »


its a tie!
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,767


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #30 on: December 19, 2017, 03:07:19 PM »


This is what PVI would currently look like if it were based on 3 elections instead of 2.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,767


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #31 on: December 25, 2017, 09:30:31 AM »
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,767


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #32 on: December 25, 2017, 08:05:57 PM »


Clinton votes unchanged.

Trump/3rd party votes change such that 3rd party performance is exactly the same in every part of the nation, and Trump votes shift to accommodate that.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,767


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #33 on: December 25, 2017, 10:26:42 PM »
Quote from: America's Sweetheart ❤ on December 25, 2017, 09:32:45 PM
Quote from: Calthrina950 on December 25, 2017, 09:20:40 PM
Quote from: Solid4096 on December 25, 2017, 08:05:57 PM


Clinton votes unchanged.

Trump/3rd party votes change such that 3rd party performance is exactly the same in every part of the nation, and Trump votes shift to accommodate that.

Is this a narrow Clinton victory?
Looks like it to me.
It is.  Goes to show that it was not much of a case of Clinton votes being in the wrong places.  It was more of a case of Trump votes being in the right places.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,767


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #34 on: December 28, 2017, 12:36:40 PM »
1 point swing towards Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton / Tim Kaine - 307 EV
Donald Trump / Mike Pence - 231 EV

2 point swing towards Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton / Tim Kaine - 334 EV
Donald Trump / Mike Pence - 204 EV

3 point swing towards Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton / Tim Kaine - 350 EV
Donald Trump / Mike Pence - 188 EV

4 point swing towards Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton / Tim Kaine - 350 EV
Donald Trump / Mike Pence - 188 EV

5 point swing towards Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton / Tim Kaine - 412 EV
Donald Trump / Mike Pence - 126 EV

6 point swing towards Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton / Tim Kaine - 413 EV
Donald Trump / Mike Pence - 125 EV
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,767


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #35 on: December 29, 2017, 03:03:26 PM »


If the House size after the 2010 census was increased so that no state lost seats from 2000.  OH-18 is the final seat assigned.  468 seats total.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,767


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #36 on: December 31, 2017, 10:52:41 AM »


3 point swing to Romney!
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,767


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #37 on: December 31, 2017, 01:47:41 PM »
« Edited: December 31, 2017, 01:54:48 PM by Solid4096 »


2 point swing to Gore!



4 point swing to Gore!
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,767


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #38 on: January 01, 2018, 04:37:13 PM »

Why does it look like there is actually some logic to how that map was created beyond randomness?
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,767


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #39 on: January 01, 2018, 05:00:47 PM »
Quote from: America's Sweetheart ❤ on January 01, 2018, 04:48:34 PM
Also, can anyone here guess what this map shows?




Nothing
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,767


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #40 on: January 01, 2018, 06:09:15 PM »
not true
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,767


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #41 on: January 03, 2018, 03:52:00 PM »
Quote from: weatherboy1102 on January 03, 2018, 01:21:40 PM
Quote from: cookiedamage on January 03, 2018, 01:14:58 PM
2020 General Election


Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)/Steve Bullock (D-MT) - 311 EVs - 51.48%

Donald Trump (R-NY)/Mike Pence (R-IN) - 221 EVs - 45.01%

Mitt Romney (I-UT)/Evan McMullin (I-WY) - 6 EVs - 3.04%

Why is McMullin from Wyoming?

Dick Cheney style swap apparently.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,767


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #42 on: January 03, 2018, 04:37:07 PM »
« Edited: January 03, 2018, 04:42:07 PM by Solid4096 »


Hypothetical Republican Wave Midterm following narrow Democratic victory in the 2016 Presidential Election.
Democrats  :40 (-10)
Republicans:60 (+10)

Things that happened differently in this 2016 scenario:

MI-Pres
WI-Pres
PA-Pres
FL-Pres
NH-Gov
WI-Sen
PA-Sen
CA-49
MN-02
TX-23
NE-02
CA-10
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,767


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #43 on: January 03, 2018, 07:38:42 PM »
Quote from: cookiedamage on January 03, 2018, 07:36:28 PM
2020 Democratic Primaries by first instance popular vote winner


Kamala Harris (CA)

Bernie Sanders (VT)

Joe Biden (DE)

2020 Democratic National Convention Roll Call


Kamala Harris (CA)

Bernie Sanders (VT)

Joe Biden (DE)



under no circumstance would Kamala Harris even come close to winning the 2020 Dem nomination.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,767


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #44 on: January 03, 2018, 09:45:26 PM »


All votes for anyone other than Trump and Clinton are removed, increasing the % of many states.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,767


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #45 on: January 04, 2018, 08:04:40 PM »
3 Senate Waves in a row for Dems (popular Dem president in 2022):
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,767


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #46 on: January 16, 2018, 08:25:46 PM »
2018 House Elections:



D+64
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,767


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #47 on: January 17, 2018, 01:15:44 PM »
Quote from: Metalhead123 on January 16, 2018, 11:00:43 PM
I think you are being way too generous to the democrats here. I think that the Democrats will substantially slim the GOP majority, but I don't think a house takeover is possible with the districts drawn the way they are.
Regardless, that map was intended to be a near-best case scenario map, and I thing the most likely outcome currently is something like D+35.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,767


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #48 on: January 17, 2018, 06:10:25 PM »
Quote from: Metalhead123 on January 17, 2018, 05:57:01 PM
Quote from: Solid4096 on January 17, 2018, 01:15:44 PM
Quote from: Metalhead123 on January 16, 2018, 11:00:43 PM
I think you are being way too generous to the democrats here. I think that the Democrats will substantially slim the GOP majority, but I don't think a house takeover is possible with the districts drawn the way they are.

Regardless, that map was intended to be a near-best case scenario map, and I thing the most likely outcome currently is something like D+35.
ah ok.

I might as well post my predictions then


D+24

While making this prediction map, I realized that what I was saying about there being a slight GOP majority rang true for me. According to my predictions, the GOP will have a 1 seat majority.
Actually, D+24 gives Democrats a 1 seat majority.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,767


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #49 on: January 21, 2018, 07:41:23 PM »
Quote from: omelott on January 21, 2018, 07:32:20 PM
2020 General Election


Bernie Sanders/Jeff Merkley: 358
Donald Trump/Mike Pence: 180

That map is 361-177
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