2018 Senate Rankings

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

>70%: solid
>50%: likely
>30%: leaning

Counting Bernie Sanders and Angus King as Democrats and not Independents by the way.

I am still going with this map for the record.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Latest ratings:

Arizona - Tossup
California - Safe D
Connecticut - Safe D
Delaware - Safe D
Florida - Leans D
Hawaii - Safe D
Indiana - Tossup
Maine - Likely I
Maryland - Safe D
Massachusetts - Safe D
Michigan - Likely D
Minnesota - Safe D
Mississippi - Safe R
Missouri - Leans D
Montana - Leans D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Tossup
New Jersey - Likely D
New Mexico - Safe D
New York - Safe D
North Dakota - Tossup
Ohio - Leans D
Pennsylvania - Leans D
Rhode Island - Safe D
Tennessee - Safe R
Texas - Safe R
Utah - Safe R
Vermont - Safe I
Virginia - Likely D
Washington - Safe D
West Virginia - Likely D
Wisconsin - Leans D
Wyoming - Safe R

Lol

Republicans have no chance whatsoever of unseating Tammy Baldwin.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

>70%: solid
>50%: likely
>30%: leaning

Counting Bernie Sanders and Angus King as Democrats and not Independents by the way.

Arizona moves from Leaning Dem to Likely Dem based on Flake retiring.  Alabama moves from Solid Rep to Likely Rep based on Roy Moore saying "Obergefell vs. Hodges was even worse than Dred Scott vs. Stanford".  No other rating changes.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Some rating changes:

State	Old Rating	New Rating
FL	Likely D	Safe D
MO	Likely D	Safe D
NV	Likely D	Safe D
WV	Lean D	Likely D

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

MN-Special Starts at Safe D.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Some rating changes:

State	Old Rating	New Rating
TN	Likely R	Lean R
TX	Safe R	Likely R
IN	Lean D	Likely D

Complete predictions for everything

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Keep in mind that all polling on non-Alabama races up to now has been sparse and junk, with the possible exception of West Virginia. So we're all just going on gut instinct and priors.

Also, Democrats beat their polling numbers handily in Alabama.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Recently changed ratings in ND, OH, and TX.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

^ It's his new persona. He changes behaviors every so often.

New Years Resolution to stop trolling atlas?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This is essentially what I'm thinking. I hope McCaskill hangs on and/or Bredesen wins in TN...

MO-Sen is Safe D lol.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I doubt that this is a King Lear sock.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

No one should respect your ratings in any capacity if you have more than 10% of races as toss ups.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

MO and IN are both definitely Likely D at this point.

FL and OH and WI and PA are definitely Safe D too.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

MO and IN are both definitely Likely D at this point.

FL and OH and WI and PA are definitely Safe D too.

FL isn't Safe. It might end up going that way, but polling at this point says Lean D, and fundamentals are around Likely.

Fundamentals have FL at Safe D, easily.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Florida as a state generally leans Republican by about 4 points.

2014 as a year leaned Republican by about 6 points.

2012 as a year leaned Democratic by about 2 points.

Combining these figures yields expected results of a 10 point Republican win in 2014 and a 2 point Republican win in 2012.

However, Rick Scott won by only 1 point in 2014, a 9 point under-performance.

While Bill Nelson won by 13 points in 2012, a 15 point over-performance.

If the 9 point under-performance of Rick Scott, the 15 point over-performance of Bill Nelson, and the 4 point Republican lean are added together, it results in a 20 point Bill Nelson win against Rick Scott, and that is before taking into account the fact that 2018 is likely to be a Democratic leaning year.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Trump has created a major self inflicted wound for Republicans with his new tariffs.

Because of this, a total of 9 races shift to the left.

Likely D to Safe   D: IN, MO, MT, NV
Lean   D to Likely D: WV, ND
Lean   R to Lean   D: TN
Likely R to Lean   R: TX
Safe   R to Likely R: NE

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Trump has created a major self inflicted wound for Republicans with his new tariffs.

Because of this, a total of 9 races shift to the left.

Likely D to Safe   D: IN, MO, MT, NV
Lean   D to Likely D: WV, ND
Lean   R to Lean   D: TN
Likely R to Lean   R: TX
Safe   R to Likely R: NE

You realize the tariff nonsense will only matter if it causes the economy to tank, right?

It will definitely cause the economy to tank. It does not take a PHD in economics to know that this is going to be the result.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I have a hard time seeing a scenario where Bredesen wins while both Heitkamp and Claire Mac any single Democratic incumbent loses.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

So I will admit that I honestly jumped the gun with my latest ratings change. I will make a corrective rating change soon.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I also feel like adding a Tilt Rating.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I also feel like adding a Tilt Rating.

Can you please move MO/IN out of Safe D?

I will move them out. After thinking about it, I really think that I jumped the gun on moving them to Safe D.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I fixed the previously absurd ratings of mine on my official atlas prediction, but I have not yet gotten around to fixing them in my google doc.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Scaled the ratings back to a non-hackish level.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Scenarios:

1: Red Tsunami


2: Red Wave


3: Red Ripple


4: Status Quo


5: Blue Ripple


6: Blue Wave


7: Blue Tsunami


8: Blue Earthquake


9: Blue Fissure


The Blue Ripple Scenario is the most likely here.
Probability Distribution:

1/9: 2.17%
2/8: 4.35%
3/7: 8.70%
4/6: 17.39%
5: 34.78%