For those of you who believe TX will stay a Republican state in the long term, why?

[ottermax]

I think TX will remain Republican because it is still a core state for Republican politics similar to how New York, California, and the DMV are core states for the Democratic party.

TX suburbanites remain very Republican for their demographics, and benefit symbiotically from their support for the party because it is the party of power.

For decades TX Republicans have worked to be more diverse and build Latino support (look at Arizona for a state that has failed to do this and has struggled to convert Latinos to the GOP even when the national trends are pushing that).

Additionally, Austin is a very effective foil. It is very different from the rest of Texas as it is very liberal, rich, and white, which is not representative of the state at all. We already saw how Houston has stagnated in its trends, and Democrats can't do much more to gain in South Texas or El Paso. DFW is one area of opportunity, but I think it also has a pretty stubbornly polarized Republican suburbanite community.

Ultimately in our two-party system Texas will remain Republican as long as Republicans need Texas...

I only see this switching if one of the core Democratic states switches to the GOP (NY seems the most likely given currently trends and coalitions, but also seems very far off, just like Texas).

One force that may accelerate the blue-ing of Texas is the ascendancy of Florida and Tennessee as Republican centers... There is a cultural difference, especially with the Florida style of GOP that might continue to push Texans away... but who knows.