Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[ottermax]

Watching the Newsmax livestream commentators have a meltdown is hilarious. Highly recommend!

[ottermax]

Watching the Newsmax livestream commentators have a meltdown is hilarious. Highly recommend!

Link plz

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVLTvdtwgA8

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Do we know why CT-05 was so close?

Hayes' campaign was widely considered by those familiar with it to be an objective disaster.

Why so?

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If CA-41 flips, it would be kinda funny since it was almost drawn as an R sink.

How is it an R sink if it has a bunch of Palm Springs homosexuals in it?

It was created as a leftovers seat after all the non-white areas had been carved into neighboring districts... it has an interesting mix of traditionally hyperconservative Olivia Rodrigo suburbia, exurban Corona and Hemet, and then liberal and trending moreso parts of the Palm Desert.
“Almost” = I imagine it was an R sink but then they added the gays in.

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https://twitter.com/adriaeln/status/1590792751150469135

Nepotism wins? Or did Cuban-Americans just like Trump and reverted back to the mean?

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NYT has the GOP at 217.

Chance they get to 218 by the end of the night?

If we get another dump from CA-03, yes. WTF is even taking that district so long? I haven't seen a single update from there since election night.

Looks like Placer has had one update, but Nevada and Sacramento counties haven't updated since the 9th.

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So, while people are mostly paying attention to the last couple of D vs R house races in California, wanted to highlight that CA-34 (the downtown LA seat, containing both surrounding, mostly Hispanic areas, as well as LA's Koreatown and Chinatown) may end up a very tight run thing between incumbent Jimmy Gomez and challenger David Kim, a fellow Democrat who...seems to be running at Gomez from the left? This is a rematch of 2020 and I seem to recall Kim being prominently backed by both Yang and Williamson in that race. Neither seem to be listed among his endorsements this time.

Gomez is currently up 5 points, but there's still a lot of the LA County vote out and Kim's been winning the batches. Advantage Gomez if I had to guess but I don't think it's a guarantee.

I'm in this district!

I'm quite surprised the race is this close. Gomez was caught completely unaware in 2020, and I assumed there was some anti-incumbent sentiment from the high turnout with a significant Trump swing. Also I think the district became a bit more Latino in redistricting and removed some of the Sanders-supporters in more gentrified neighborhoods.

This year Gomez spent insane amounts of money on mailers and they were quite bizarre - photos of him with AOC and Bernie pretending to be a Squad member, accusing Kim of being a QAnon Republican, and all sorts of exaggerations of Gomez's support for progressive measures.
That being said, this is prime DSA territory in LA (which has becoming quite a powerful force with 3 out 15 city council seats now) and they did endorse Gomez but not in a functional way - just a recommendation but no financial or practical support.

Kim was also more organized this year with billboards, a ton of on the ground campaigning (he was on my street corner so I said hi), and some mailers challenging the Gomez attacks.

I'm mostly disappointed that Gomez resorted to so much negativity rather than touting his accomplishments or discussing the issues, but overall it is wonderful to live in a district where I had an actual choice between two candidates - the pragmatic progressive (Gomez) vs. the activist progressive (Kim).

My boyfriend who's a centrist voted Gomez, and I voted for Kim so we split our vote - fairly representative of the district.

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https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1593026164196397056?s=20&t=4mzVY6PC2R...

Also the eternal battle between Ktown + Downtown LA verses the Latino Eastside is actually getting close for once.

It's not necessarily certain that Ktown Koreans support Kim btw - he's openly gay which has been a reason for some in the Korean community to not support him - but overall most of Ktown is not actually Christian Koreans but a mix of young professionals, immigrants, and working class renters so the battle is accurately described just not as ethnically divided as some may think!

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From the Washington Primary you could see that Murray performed at Biden levels in the White areas of the State and underperformed by 5 points in the Minority areas of the State

Since that CD is mostly White it was not so unexpected.

Republicans will have a better chance winning WA-8 in the future rather than WA-3.

WA-8 is only becoming more difficult for Republicans as more tech workers move to outer suburbs. Having grown up in the district people can only afford to move further out into these suburbs and these voters are quite strongly Democratic. The more diverse districts in WA are 9 and 10 which are a bit too blue for Republicans.

WA-3 will be a strong opportunity for Republicans in the future. JHB could easily take back the seat if enough of the Battle Ground type GOP voters can put aside their Trumpism.

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In my mind the current WA-8 is mostly very affluent, pearl-clutcher Seattle exurbs like Sammamish and Issaquah, although maybe it makes more sense if you consider places like East Renton Highlands? WA-3 will definitely remain the most R of the districts you mentioned through the end of the decade, just because of how much small-town hinterland Western Washington it contains.

Sammamish and to a much lesser extent Issaquah have those types of Romney-Clinton voters, but overall WA-8 has a pretty large base of white working class voters in places like Graham, Granite Falls, Bonney Lake, and Enumclaw. However especially in South King County and Pierce County even these areas are diversifying whether from tech workers or just more diverse workers. These areas have never been that friendly to Democrats so I don't think they have much more ground to lose votes and the newer types of voters moving in can be seen at the precinct level in areas with more new housing developments like Maple Valley, Snoqualmie, and East Renton.

That being said the new WA-08 added so many deep red areas that there will continue to be a strong GOP base for the decade, I just think the polarization is too strong for Democrats to lose unless they have a bad year / Republicans nominate a winning candidate of the Dino Rossi / Reichert mold.

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Anyone in the weeds enough to answer these questions?


- Cook Political Report says the national house popular vote is currently at R +3.0%.  Is this still likely to change much at all?  Just how many votes are still left in California or elsewhere?  Any at all? 

- And if you do a rigorous adjustment for uncontested seats, how much further to the left is the national environment likely to end up?  I'd guess somewhere around R+2 or R+1?

240,000 ballots left to count in CA mostly out of Sacramento and Placer counties which will probably be evenly divided (shouldn't change the national vote at this point).

There might be some other states that aren't fully counted.

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D Riverside County but R San Bernardino County seems like the inverse of recent presidential results.

A bit disappointing to see OK all red, guess it's the counterpart of MA?

San Bernardino County is a bit more Latino than Riverside County and didn't have any competitive house elections while Riverside had at least one competitive race.

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Just saw a marquee on CNN as I was passing through my apartment building lobby:

Dems panic as black turnout plummets in 2022

:Eyeroll:

Do better, CNN.  

I swear to god, sometimes I can't tell if the people running these stories are just trying to be sensationalistic or actually believe this stuff and are ignorant. I would say the former but given CNN and MSNBC's awful coverage of how simple elections in GA work on election night two weeks ago, it may be the latter.

It's like .... yeah, black turnout was going to fall. It's literally a Democratic Midterm! What the hell did you expect? Core base minority turnout always does that every midterm like clockwork, just like every other base in a midterm.

Black turnout was not just lower in a typical midterm way but about a 40% drop from the presidential turnout figures which hasn't been seen in more than 20 years.

Clearly Democrats do need to do some work to connect with Black voters if they hope to win the presidency because the messaging completely failed in 2022. If you look in racially polarized areas especially in the South or urban Midwest / Northeast it is shocking how poorly Democrats performed in heavily Black communities.

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NYT literally just making stuff up. Only plausible thing i can think of is that they are going off of their poll that had Titus tied, but that poll was.... clearly wrong since Titus won by 6.

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1604969649128341504

There is evidence that there was a drop in Latino turnout and some persuasion of Republican leaning independents if you look at turnout numbers in Latino precincts. Overall Latino voters remained very Democratic leaning in Nevada but they also had numbers closer to 2020 than in previous years combined with low turnout.

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Schumer (D) 3,320,561 — 56.7%
Pinion (R) 2,501,151 — 42.7%

Hochul (D) 3,140,415 — 53.2%
Zeldin (R) 2,762,581 — 46.8%

Looks like there was a pretty big dump of votes finally counted in NY after election day and right before the certification, with about ~190k more processed. Raised Schumer's final margin from +13.2 to +14.0 and Hochul's from +5.8 to +6.4.

Same thing happened in the August specials... they literally took 3-4 weeks to finally count the final mail-ins/absentees.

Did this make any of the congressional races closer?