Canadian Election 2019

[ottermax]

I wanted to write some thoughts on the NDP.

Where does the party go from here? Would Mulcair or Boulerice have performed better or was Quebec already lost?

BC - The NDP underperformed and should have gained a seat or two in Metro Vancouver or Surrey... very disappointing.

Alberta and Saskatchewan - Losing 3 seats is terrible, but maybe that's simply a Scheer effect?

Manitoba and North - the only bright spots, but these felt like reversions to the mean.

Ontario - I think this is the biggest disappointment. I was hoping Singh could boost NDP opportunities in the 905 and Toronto by reaching out to minority communities and getting the urban left excited... but it seems like the psychology of strategic voting is too powerful in this area unless people expect the Liberals to collapse like in 2011.

Quebec - Everyone expected losses here, but the vote share was worse than expected and the NDP has been reduced to the one area they have more of a natural base.

Atlantic Canada - NDP gained one seat... remember when they typically had a few? Another mediocre performance.

The biggest problem I see for the NDP is there is no clear strategy forward. A Quebec focused party will never overtake the Bloc + a Liberal leader from Quebec. Ontario did not have a breakthrough. Atlantic Canada seems more promising but the party infrastructure is very weak... look at New Brunswick. The NDP needs to build a more reliable base of voters on a regional basis if electoral reform cannot happen... but what would that look like?

[ottermax]

Globally it appears that populist or right-leaning parties have gained ground in rural areas, while more liberal, centrist, or left-wing parties have lost ground in rural areas while making gains in urban areas. However in Canada the Liberals who epitomize liberalism and centrism have held strongly onto rural areas of Atlantic Canada, while completely being removed from the picture in the rural prairies. This is not the first time this has happened I believe, but what drives this?

For example if you hop over the border to Maine or even Upstate New York we saw huge swing to Trump in 2016. Why aren't these trends playing out in Canada?