South African local government elections - August 3, 2016

[ottermax]

Looking at the polls for this week's local elections, apparently the DA is in the lead in Jo'burg, Tshwane, and Nelson Mandela. I doubt that the polls are really capturing the loyal, lower-income voters that help the ANC win, but is it possible that even one of these cities will switch to the DA? Will the EFF gather enough votes to decrease the ANC support and allow the DA to win a spot?

A few things I seem to observe from outside, and after living in South Africa a few years ago:
1. The DA truly does seem to be moving beyond a Whites and elite party. Zuma seems to have made enough transgressions that Black voters, especially the increasing numbers of young voters who are unemployed and have seen limited progress. Now that the DA has consolidated Whites, Coloureds, and Asians in much of the country they need to get a significant chunk of Black voters. Mmusi Maimane is the perfect leader for them I would think, but I haven't been on the ground to really know. Things have truly declined recently in South Africa regarding corruption, economy, and other issues, but the ANC can still run on Mandela pretty effectively.
2. The EFF seems to have really asserted itself as the most effective Black opposition since the IFP. This always seems to have been a niche to fill - a voice for the many young, poor, or unemployed Black South Africans - who have showed loyalty to the ANC but are increasingly disenchanted by poor service delivery. I get the sense that Zuma's corruption is not their worry, but rather impatience with the pace of improvements and the vast inequality. Again, not on the ground so I'm just assuming.
3. The ANC is one of the most effective political machines in the world. Practically every rural Black South African seems to have a free ANC t-shirt with Zuma or Mandela's face on it. The ANC has implemented jobs programs, welfare, and other services that remain incredibly slow, marginal, and limited, but a far improvement for many compared to Apartheid. I think it's only in the big metropolitan cities that we will see any possible shift to the DA due to impatience in the townships, but that's a big if.

If anyone has more info, please share. This is going to a big election I think!

[ottermax]

Some more sources of information:

Polls for the big 3 cities being watched:
http://www.enca.com/elections2016/?utm_source=encaDesktop_PollsNavBar&utm_medium=NavbarBanner&utm_campaign=PollsNavBar

Good article about some voices on the election:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-36922631

An article on the accuracy of the polls:
http://mg.co.za/article/2016-07-29-00-tale-of-two-polls-one-survey-puts-anc-at-50-in-major-metros-another-begs-to-differ

Fairly critical view of the last rallies for the DA:
http://mg.co.za/article/2016-07-31-mmusi-maimane-get-personal-at-at-final-rally-certain-da-will-win-major-metros

ANC focusing on race and Mandela's legacy:
http://www.sowetanlive.co.za/news/2016/07/31/mandelas-sentiments-about-da-recurring-theme-at-anc-rally

[ottermax]

With the results in Jo'burg and Tshwane, what is the Black African vote breakdown do you think? It seems like turnout is low in the townships relative to the suburbs, but I can't really tell. The DA result in Cape Town is baffling.

Seems like the DA grew, but mostly benefited from the EFF taking votes away from the ANC. The DA appears to have lost votes in Free State and Limpopo... which is not a good sign if they want to gain power come 2019. It seems like the DA has a lot of work to do to really have any chance at power.

Also has the VF+ gained votes this election? Maybe they are capturing white voters who feel alienated by the DA...