UK local by-elections, 2024

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Hampton North result means that Richmond upon Thames council is now a Tory free zone.

Replacing a councillor first elected in 1957 which is an astonishingly long public service.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Thursday 28 March

Andrew Teale’s preview

Cambridgeshire; Yaxley & Farcet

Lib Dem 509 (31.0%, +5.6)
Con 470 (28.6%, -28.3)
Ind Howell 448 (27.3%, new)
Lab 175 (10.6%, -7.1)
Green 42 (2.6%, new)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem gain from Con

North Kesteven; Heckington Rural

Con 425 (33.7%, -26.9)
Lincs Inds 369 (29.2%, new)
Lib Dem 345 (27.3%, new)
Lab 123 (9.7%, -29.6)
(changes from 2022)

Con hold

Knowsley; Whitefield

Ind Johns 659 (54.5%, new)
Lab 558 (45.5%, -7.0)
(changes from 2023)

Ind Johns gain from Ind Guy; ward now 2 Ind 1 Lab

Flintshire; Brynford and Halkyn

Lab 329 (36.6%, -3.1)
Con 287 (32.0%, +1.8 )
Lib Dem 98 (10.9%, new)
Green 95 (10.6%, new)
Ind Dickin 53 (5.9%, new)
Ind Johnson 36 (4.0%, new)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

Lab gain from Con; ward now 2 Lab

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Thanks for stepping in, happy to take a turn with next week’s contests, if you’d like.

I'm more than happy to fill in till YL is free again. Only takes a few minutes.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Thursday 28 March

Andrew Teale’s preview

Neath Port Talbot; Neath East

Lab 409 (43.8%, +10.6)
Ind Finn 247 (26.4%, new)
Plaid 157 (16.8%, -17.7)
Ind Harris 121 (13.0%, new)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

Lab hold; ward still 1 Lab 1 PC 1 Ind

Somerset; Somerton

Lib Dem 1212 (50.1%, -1.0)
Con 878 (36.3%, -2.2)
Lab 174 (7.2%, -0.5)
Green 154 (6.4%, new)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

Lib Dem hold; ward still 2 Lib Dem

Orkney Islands; Stromness and South Isles

Ind Park 757 (85.8%, new)
Ind Thompson 125 (14.2%, +8.2)
(changes from 2022)

Ind Park gain from Ind Stockan


As an aside, while trying to understand bloc voting share changes (top vote vs average vote wtf lol) I was reminded of the insane old method many NSW councils used to use. Preferential bloc voting!
So you go to all the hassle of having preferential ballot papers (with group voting tickets and everything!) you then distribute preferences till one candidate gets a majority. Then you start the count again with their votes redistributed... till you fill as many seats as vacant.
Spectacularly pointless. The Australian obsession for preferential voting. We even invented double preferential open list d'Hondt, but that's another story.
A results pdf of us actually counting votes like this

[AustralianSwingVoter]

You can also look back to the 70s and see just how far the Independent tide has ebbed.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

On the subject of the days by-elections, Neath East is notable for its not entirely geographically accurate name. Must be in the top percentile for absurd Boundary Commission names.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Good result for Labour in the misnamed Neath ward - new Welsh leader bounce?

Given Labour had an exceptionally bad result in NPT in 2022 losing the council for the first time since the 70s, I don't think it says as much. They're starting from a very low base in spite of the 2022 national environment.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The council was only created in 1995. But random rogue results are common in Welsh local government and usually reflect local grumblings or scandals of one sort or another.

Which is quite ironic given it's home to a long running national story with Tata Steel, which doesn't seem to have had an impact on the council. Instead random discontent in the Neath end seems to have boiled over.
(and my reference to the 70s included the three predecessor districts)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

“Team Representing Uckfield Supporting Transparency” lol