Australian by-elections, 2018

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Upcoming by-elections

Wagga Wagga


Wentworth

[AustralianSwingVoter]

By-elections are being held in 4 federal Labor seats, 1 WA state Labor seat and 1 Centre/Xenophon seat. All six seats are marginal, with Longman being the most likely gain for the Liberals, with a poll out today putting them ahead.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Australia really needs to reform the constitution...

Nice try, we've had 44 referendums to change the constitution, of them only 8 succeeded, that's an 18% success rate.
Changing the constitution requires a double majority in referendum, that is a majority of votes and a majority of votes in a majority of states.
That is why a further 5 amendments were not passed despite winning the popular vote as they failed to win 4 states.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Darling Range has been scheduled for the 23rd of June, one month away, meanwhile the federal by-elections will be held a month after on the 28th of July.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

We've had a good few polls over the last 3 weeks, specifically:
Braddon - ReachTEL (2/6) - 54-46
Longman - ReachTEL (10/5) - 53-47
Longman - ReachTEL (2/6) - 52-48
Mayo - ReachTEL (5/6) - 58-42
Mayo - YouGov−Galaxy (7/6) - 58-42

[AustralianSwingVoter]

New poll for Darling Range:
Darling Range - ReachTEL (14/6) - 54-46

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It's election day in Darling Range!

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Polls close in 20 minutes in Darling Range!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Polls have closed!

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Links
Elections WA
ABC

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Antony Green also breaks down the results booth-by-booth, which should give us a pretty clear idea from the first few booths the final result.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Just a reminder that Labor's strongest booth in 2017 is closed, with voters going to a different booth because... A garbage truck crashed into the school and they can't clean it up in time.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Links
Elections WA
ABC

Two more links:
Poll Bludger
Tally Room

[AustralianSwingVoter]

A good roundup of the campaign from the ABC:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-23/plenty-riding-on-darling-range-by-election-for-mcgowan-and-nahan/9899094

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I take it there's an urban vs rural divide in Darling Range?

No, the seat isn't rural. The seat is the outer suburbs cobbled together because tradition and it allows for much better seats in suburbia proper. The division is suburb by suburb. The Kalamunda outskirts are reliably Conservative, Serpentine not quite so much, so Labor amazingly got 52% there in 2017, and the outskirts of Armadale are the friendliest to Labor.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I take it there's an urban vs rural divide in Darling Range?

No, the seat isn't rural. The seat is the outer suburbs cobbled together because tradition and it allows for much better seats in suburbia proper. The division is suburb by suburb. The Kalamunda outskirts are reliably Conservative, Serpentine not quite so much, so Labor amazingly got 52% there in 2017, and the outskirts of Armadale are the friendliest to Labor.

So, in Aussie lingo, it would be called Outer Metropolitan? With Kalamunda usually ensuring that it remains a blue ribbon seat?

When Kalamunda was in it is was safe as houses, but when they took it out in '06 the seat went about 10 points left notionally. However, even without Kalamunda the seat still skews a good bit to the right.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Darling Range is a bits and pieces electorate. It doesn't make sense, the communities don't have anything to do with each other. However, Darling Range's existence makes a lot of seats better, as it takes in all the stuff that doesn't really fit in elsewhere.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Booths currently in:

Karagullen District Hall
LIB    48.7    +3.0
ALP    23.9    -7.4

Jarrahdale - Bruno Gianetti Hall
ALP    29.9    -13.6
LIB    27.4    -2.3

Armadale Primary
LIB    33.8    -2.3
ALP    27.8    -9.3

Byford - Marri Grove Primary
LIB    32.6    +6.2
ALP    30.6    -21.1

Byford - Serpentine-Jarrahdale Community Recreation Centre
LIB    32.5    +6.1
ALP    26.6    -19.8

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Darling Range is a bits and pieces electorate. It doesn't make sense, the communities don't have anything to do with each other. However, Darling Range's existence makes a lot of seats better, as it takes in all the stuff that doesn't really fit in elsewhere.

To sum it up in one word: leftovers.

Yeah, all the outskirts of towns which are a bit too big too take everything in, or villages that don't really fit anywhere.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

More booths:

Mundaring Hall
LIB    36.9    +4.6
ALP    36.0    -8.1

Oakford Community Hall
LIB    44.1    +3.7
ALP    21.2    -16.5

Pickering Brook Primary
LIB    50.8    -3.3
ALP    23.4    -2.5

Serpentine Primary
LIB    38.5    +2.1
ALP    28.4    -12.4

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Bedfordale District Hall
LIB    36.0    +2.1
ALP    28.8    -7.4

Mundigong Primary
LIB    31.7    +0.2
ALP    24.4    -15.9

Roleystone Hall
LIB    32.2    +0.3
ALP    31.1    -9.5

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Darling Range is a bits and pieces electorate. It doesn't make sense, the communities don't have anything to do with each other. However, Darling Range's existence makes a lot of seats better, as it takes in all the stuff that doesn't really fit in elsewhere.

To sum it up in one word: leftovers.

Yeah, all the outskirts of towns which are a bit too big too take everything in, or villages that don't really fit anywhere.

Is the area contained in the Darling Range electorate growing faster than WA overall?

About the same, as soon as a development or new suburb pops up the next redistribution gives it to one of the suburban seats.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Byford - West Byford Primary
ALP    38.9    -13.9
LIB    25.8    +1.9

[AustralianSwingVoter]

WE HAVE 2PP NUMBERS!!!!!
PRAISE THE LORD!!!!!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Armadale Primary
Alyssa Hayden   LIB   57.3   +7.4
Tania Lawrence   ALP   42.7   -7.4

Byford - Marri Grove Primary
Alyssa Hayden   LIB   54.5   +16.6
Tania Lawrence   ALP   45.5   -16.6

Byford - Serpentine-Jarrahdale Community Recreation Centre
Alyssa Hayden   LIB   60.2   +17.5
Tania Lawrence   ALP   39.8   -17.5

Karagullen District Hall
Alyssa Hayden   LIB   65.5   +8.2
Tania Lawrence   ALP   34.5   -8.2

Mundaring Hall
Alyssa Hayden   LIB   49.7   +10.3
Tania Lawrence   ALP   50.3   -10.3

Oakford Community Hall
Alyssa Hayden   LIB   64.1   +11.9
Tania Lawrence   ALP   35.9   -11.9

Pickering Brook Primary
Alyssa Hayden   LIB   63.5   +0.2
Tania Lawrence   ALP   36.5   -0.2