South Australian state election - 17th March 2018 (user search)
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  South Australian state election - 17th March 2018 (search mode)
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Author Topic: South Australian state election - 17th March 2018  (Read 13256 times)
AustralianSwingVoter
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,091
Australia


« Reply #75 on: March 17, 2018, 04:15:25 AM »
Not much in from Hartley but it doesn't look at all good for Nick
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AustralianSwingVoter
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,091
Australia


« Reply #76 on: March 17, 2018, 04:18:54 AM »
SA Best have Heysen but I can't see them winning anything else.
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AustralianSwingVoter
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,091
Australia


« Reply #77 on: March 17, 2018, 04:23:13 AM »
Quote from: AUDIT THE AUSTRALIAN PARLIAMENT! on March 17, 2018, 04:17:26 AM
Yes, SA-BEST aren't doing their BEST, are they?

From the little amount of booth-matching I've done, the Liberals are doing well in Colton, as for Hurtle Vale, as much of that was in Reynell/Mawson/Mitchell, it's no surprise Labor's doing well there, wait for that big Woodcroft booth though.
SA Best is doing Democrats level well, and really a third party winning a seat at all is good. They're getting 14% in the House and 18.5% in the council.
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AustralianSwingVoter
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,091
Australia


« Reply #78 on: March 17, 2018, 04:23:46 AM »
Colton's looking good for the Liberals.
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AustralianSwingVoter
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,091
Australia


« Reply #79 on: March 17, 2018, 04:28:07 AM »
Quote from: Fmr. Lincoln Gov. Lok on March 17, 2018, 04:26:48 AM
Ouch, those numbers in Hartley must be hurting hugely in SAB.
Yeah, Xenophon's almost certainly lost.
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AustralianSwingVoter
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,091
Australia


« Reply #80 on: March 17, 2018, 04:30:22 AM »
There's always one or two which take two or three hours before the first numbers come in.
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AustralianSwingVoter
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,091
Australia


« Reply #81 on: March 17, 2018, 04:31:03 AM »
Quote from: Fmr. Lincoln Gov. Lok on March 17, 2018, 04:29:22 AM
Why the  is SAB taking from Labor in a lot of seats, it seems off.
SA Best is taking, statewide, equally from Labor and the Liberals
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AustralianSwingVoter
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,091
Australia


« Reply #82 on: March 17, 2018, 04:31:56 AM »
In the five notionally flipped seats:
LAB->LIB
Colton - Looking good for the Libs, though still needs some more northern booths.
Elder - Still Nothing
Mawson - I think Labor might hold on here.
Newland - Down to the wire.

LIB->LAB
Hurtle Vale - Looking good for Labor
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AustralianSwingVoter
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,091
Australia


« Reply #83 on: March 17, 2018, 04:33:19 AM »
King, the new NE seat is looking good for the Liberals, with a Labor margin of under 1%
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AustralianSwingVoter
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,091
Australia


« Reply #84 on: March 17, 2018, 04:34:31 AM »
Very unrepresentative booths but the Liberals are looking good in Lee
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AustralianSwingVoter
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,091
Australia


« Reply #85 on: March 17, 2018, 04:35:25 AM »
I think the Liberals might just be able to get a majority.
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AustralianSwingVoter
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,091
Australia


« Reply #86 on: March 17, 2018, 04:37:42 AM »
I can't see anything other than Heysen for SA Best. Hartley is definitely slipping away.
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AustralianSwingVoter
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,091
Australia


« Reply #87 on: March 17, 2018, 04:40:59 AM »
Quote from: Fmr. Lincoln Gov. Lok on March 17, 2018, 04:35:38 AM
This is looking like a 24 seat liberal win.
I think that there's a good chance they'll be getting it on the back of the Greens. It looks like Greens preferences will put Labor over the Liberals in a few Hills seats, and SA Best preferences split only about 60-40 to Labor, while Labor splits 80-40 to SA Best.
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AustralianSwingVoter
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,091
Australia


« Reply #88 on: March 17, 2018, 04:45:08 AM »
Just noticed this, the Liberals seem to be going very well in Enfield and I did not see that coming.
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AustralianSwingVoter
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,091
Australia


« Reply #89 on: March 17, 2018, 04:46:24 AM »
Quote from: Fmr. Lincoln Gov. Lok on March 17, 2018, 04:43:58 AM
Wow, SAB getting blow out in Giles is really surprising me.
Not really if you think about it. Weatherhill has moved mountains for Whyalla and I think this is them showing their appreciation.
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AustralianSwingVoter
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,091
Australia


« Reply #90 on: March 17, 2018, 04:48:55 AM »
I really think that SA Best ad was the turning point of this campaign. Before it you were arguing that SA Best performance won't be as good as everything was indicating, but afterwards you talking about that they were going to go well in spite of everything. I don't think it changed that many minds but I'm certain it changed the feeling and perception, and after it everything started to go wrong.
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AustralianSwingVoter
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,091
Australia


« Reply #91 on: March 17, 2018, 04:52:56 AM »
I think there's a good chance that Labor will leapfrog SA Best on Greens preferences here. If they can get 70% of preferences, and I think that is probable, as Greens voters vote Labor 2 with a passion, then they can get over SA Best. SA Best preferences will not flow anywhere near strongly enough to Labor to give them Heysen.
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AustralianSwingVoter
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,091
Australia


« Reply #92 on: March 17, 2018, 04:56:13 AM »
I just checked, the greens put the Liberals ahead of SA Best in Heysen, so yeah, I think there's a good chance they won't win it.
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AustralianSwingVoter
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,091
Australia


« Reply #93 on: March 17, 2018, 04:56:56 AM »
Two and a half hours later and still nothing from Dunstan
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AustralianSwingVoter
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,091
Australia


« Reply #94 on: March 17, 2018, 04:57:24 AM »
Quote from: Fmr. Lincoln Gov. Lok on March 17, 2018, 04:54:18 AM
My current projection is a likely Liberal majority
I'm inclined to agree with you.
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AustralianSwingVoter
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,091
Australia


« Reply #95 on: March 17, 2018, 05:00:00 AM »
I know don't know if SA Best can win Heysen even if they are in the top two.
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AustralianSwingVoter
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,091
Australia


« Reply #96 on: March 17, 2018, 05:06:43 AM »
Something weird's happening in Waite.
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AustralianSwingVoter
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,091
Australia


« Reply #97 on: March 17, 2018, 05:09:41 AM »
Not anymore atleast
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AustralianSwingVoter
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,091
Australia


« Reply #98 on: March 17, 2018, 05:46:02 AM »
Sorry about the interlude, just had to eat dinner, however while I was gone it seems that Antony's called it. I don't think the Liberals getting 26 seats was anyones prediction.
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AustralianSwingVoter
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,091
Australia


« Reply #99 on: March 17, 2018, 05:48:26 AM »
3rd in 27 years to come into government while your party holds federal government. Hodgman and Carr are the other two.
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