South Australian state election - 17th March 2018

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Hartley

Named for John Hartley, who led the South Australian education system for two decades the seat contains the centre of the Adelaide Italian community, with 11.1% fluent in Italian and a quarter claiming Italian heritage, both the highest in the state. This Italian heritage is clear when you look at the names of it's recent members, Tarzia, Portolesi and Scalzi. However the seats most famous politician-in-residence harks not from Italy but from Cyprus, yes Nick Xenophon. He changed his name from Xenophou to correct a translation error stemming from his father's emigration to Australia, and is contesting the seat he lives in, rather than the seats he is strongest in in the Adelaide Hills on principle. Not that he hasn't performed well in this seat, indeed this seat was his 14th best in 2016. The seat is a key marginal, indeed Labor is running Portolesi, who was defeated in 2014 after serving two terms. The seat takes in suburbs with starkly different voting habits, and thus has been the Electoral Commission's number one target over the years in their never-ending quest for fair electoral boundaries. The seat is the seat to watch this election. Full stop.

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Dunstan

The seat is, now rather ironically, given the seats rightward lean, named for Radical Left-Wing Premier Don Dunstan, who represented the seat of Norwood, which was renamed only last election in 2014 to Dunstan in his honor. The seat is, even more ironically currently represented by Leader of the Opposition Steve Marshall (A British equivalent would be Jeremy Corbyn representing the seat of Thatcher). Unusually for a party leader the seat is still marginal, with Steve Marshall elected by gaining the seat from the Labor incumbent, the seat remains marginal, however Steve Marshall won't lose this year, given his high-profile. However once he retires this seat could easily fall back to Labor.

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Adelaide

Covering the City Centre the seat of Adelaide was, before 1985, a safe Labor seat. However in 1985 the Electoral Commission drastically altered the boundaries, changing a 15.6 Labor margin into a 2.8 Liberal margin, despite this Labor barely held on in '85, however lost it in '89. Since then the seat has remained one of the most marginal seats in the state, flipping back to Labor in '02 then in '14 flipping back to the Liberals on the back of a 14.7% swing, the second largest in South Australian history. Despite this the seat remains marginal, and could go either way.

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West Torrens

Named for the City of West Torrens, of which the electorate lies within, the seat of West Torrens, known between 1938 and 1956 Thebarton, and between 1970 and 2002 as Peake, is one of the safest Labor seats in the state. Indeed since the transition to single-member electorates in 1938 the seat of West Torrens has, bar for a Left-Wing Independent from '38 to '42, been represented for all but one term by Labor members. That one term was, of course, after the '93 landslide. Other than that the seat has stayed true to its deep red roots, and there is no indication of any change this time.

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Colton

Named for Mary Colton, a prominent suffragette, the seat of Colton, known as Henley Beach before 1993, is South Australia's bellwether, supporting the governing party at every single election. The Electoral Commission, in a time-honoured tradition, has radically altered Colton in the pursuit of Fairness, overturning a 1.5 Labor margin into a 3.7 Liberal margin. This change has been facilitated by a dramatic shift southwards, losing Labor-leaning Grange and Seaton in return for Liberal-leaning West Beach and Glenelg North. This will considerably help the Liberals here, but do not write Labor off as winning the unwindable is what SA Labor does best.

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Morphett

Named for John Morphett, one of the first Speakers of the Legislative Council, Morphett has long leaned right. This lean was substantially increased when in 1985 the redistribution abolished Glenelg, the Liberals only safe seat inside Adelaide, as opposed to the outskirts. This substantially increased the Liberals margin in Morphett, however the Electoral Commission has this year removed North Glenelg and replaced it with far more marginal suburbs to the east. This has substantially reduced the Liberals margin from 12.9 to 7.7. In addition the incumbent member was defeated for de-selection and is re-contesting as an Independent, which will cause many problems with preferences. Despite this I can't see Labor coming out on top in this four-horse race. If they couldn't win it in their 2006 landslide I can't see them winning it now.

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Badcoe

The electorate of Ashford, known as Hanson before 2002, has been renamed Badcoe in honour of Peter Badcoe, who was posthumously awarded the Victoria Cross in honour of his service in Vietnam. The seat has gradually moved eastwards over the years, and as such the Labor margin has likewise increased each year, taking what was a safe Liberal seat at its creation in 1970 to what is now a semi-marginal Labor seat. The retirement of the sitting member should give the Liberals a boost however it probably won't be enough.

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Unley

Named for the suburb it is centred on the seat of Unley has existed continuously since the establishment of single-member districts in 1938. Trivia: In 1973 over unhappiness at the quality of the Labor and LCL candidates Susie Creamcheese of the Happy Birthday Party ran, and got 6% of the vote. In 1997 the seat was redistributed dramatically in the Liberals favour, and has, since then, remained a safe Liberal seat, not even falling in 2006, and is under no particular threat this time.

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Bragg

Named for Nobel Prize for Physics winning Father-Son duo William and Lawrence Bragg, who won the Nobel Prize for their dramatic advancement of knowledge of X-Rays. The seat, and it's predecessor Burnside, are some of the safest Liberal seats in the state, always electing a Liberal Country League or Liberal member. The Liberals have never failed to win a majority on First Preferences, making it one of a select few Australian electorates to never have to go to preferences. Xenophon has never performed well here, taking out the only chance of a non-Liberal member here.

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Waite

Named for Peter Waite, noted for his substantial philanthropy, the seat of Waite was named Mitcham before 1993, known for being the only single-member district to be won by the Democrats, by its most notable member Robin Millhouse and his short-lived successor Heather Southcott. Robin Millhouse was the first representative of the Liberal Country League's urban middle class faction to be elected to Parliament. the seat has been drastically redrawn losing a majority of it's territory to Elder, and taking a majority of Davenport. The contest is complicated by the incumbent Martin Hamilton-Smith, former Opposition leader, recontesting as an independent and the strong Xenophon performance.

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Elder

Named for Thomas Elder, who is most notable for introducing camels to Australia, the seat of Elder, known as Walsh before 1993, Ascot Park before 1985, Edwardstown before 1970 and Goodwood before 1956, in that time the seat has (as usual except 1938 because Independents) only once elected a non-Labor member, as usual in the 1993 Liberal landslide. The seat has been substantially redrawn, losing a majority of its current territory to Morphett, Badcoe and Gibson in exchange for a majority of Waite. This has overturned a Labor margin of 1.8 into a Liberal margin of 4.3. Despite this, as usual, do not underestimate Labor here, winning the unwindable is what they do best.

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Gibson

Named for Gladys Ruth Gibson, a prominent educator and women's activist, the seat of Gibson is an entirely new seat, taking the northern parts of the abolished Bright and Mitchell, the western suburbs of the substantially changed Elder and small southern portions of Morphett. The seat is totally new, with a marginal notional Liberal margin of 3.2, with the sitting member of Mitchell contesting Gibson, and definitely has the advantage as the incumbent, though SA Best performs well here and has a strong candidate, a former member.

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Black

Named for one of Australia's most prominent modernist artists Dorrit Black, the seat of Black is a new seat, taking the southern parts of the abolished Bright and Mitchell. The new seat has a marginal notional Liberal margin of 2.3. The sitting member of Bright is contesting Black, and has the advantage of incumbency and when coupled with no Xenophon candidate he is definitely favoured for re-election.

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Davenport

Named for Samuel Davenport, an early settler of the area and parliamentarian the seat of Davenport has one of the longest Liberal traditions in the state, electing a Liberal every time except in 1985 when conservative Stacey Evans won as a Independent Liberal after a dirty pre-selection. The redistribution has dramatically shifted Davenport, losing a majority of the current seat to Waite and in return taking most of the abolished Fisher, however Fisher's successor is officially Hurtle Vale. The seat is one of Xenophon's best, however the Liberals are strong here and definitely have the advantage.

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Hurtle Vale

Named for James Hurtle Fisher a prominent colonial politician, who was the first resident Commissioner of South Australia, first Mayor of Adelaide and first President of the fully elected Legislative Council, the seat is a new seat, theoretically the successor of Fisher. The seat is the only seat to theoretically flip from Liberal to Labor in the redistribution, however Labor won the Fisher by-election after the death of the sitting independent member Bob Such. The seat is centred on the quadripoint where Fisher, Mawson, Mitchell and Reynell met, and takes territory from all four of them. The seat is notionally Labor with a notional margin of 1.7, however the area has a Liberal tradition.

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Reynell

Named for John Reynell, a prominent South Australian horticulturalist and winemaker, the seat of Reynell has been slightly reorientated by the redistribution, however the margin stays much the same. The seat is a safe Labor seat, having been always represented by Labor members bar the 1993 blip, and should stay that way.

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Kaurna

Named for the Kaurna people, the traditional owners of the Gulf St Vincent coast, the seat of Kaurna, known as Baudin before 1993, has been strengthened for Labor with the removal of strong Liberal rural vineyards in the south in exchange for stronger Labor territory to the south of Noarlunga. This has strengthened the already traditionally Labor seat, which broke from the fold only in the 1993 landslide. This seat is safe enough for Labor

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YES! It's done!

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1.6% in and although it's early it looks like it's going to be roughly in line with the polls.

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SA Best is ahead in Heysen, however by not that much, which doesn't bode well.

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Troy Bell's looking good in Mount Gambier

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Labor's going very well in Waite, they shouldn't win it but they'll make it far closer than it's ever been.

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In the five notionally flipped seats:
LAB->LIB
Colton - It depends on which booths are in, the numbers are currently very conflicting.
Elder - Nothing in yet.
Mawson - Who knows yet?
Newland - Looking Liberal

LIB->LAB
Hurtle Vale - Labor's looking good here, there's currently a swing to them.

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Looks like Frances Bedford's going to hold on in Florey, she's running as an Independent due to a giant pre-selection storm, however she'll almost certainly rejoin Labor upon re-election.

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9.9% in and the key trend is Xenophon is definitely underperforming, they're currently at 14%