2018 Australian election predictions

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Tasmania - I think the Libs will fall short of a Majority, though not by much. Liberals will definitely be first in terms of seats and vote share. I think Jacqui will get a seat or two.

South Australia - No one gets a majority, and I think Xenophon will go with Weatherill. I think Labor will be first in seats regardless of vote share because Labor safe seats are secure, while a good many safe Liberal seats are vulnerable to Xenophon.

Victoria - I'm near certain that Labor will maintain their majority, and I'm fairly certain they'll increase it. I'm inclined to think that the Greens will gain both Richmond and Brunswick, while holding all their current seats, taking them to 5 seats.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

To elaborate more form my short thoughts I'll give a more detailed insight into each in the order of the date of each election.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

So firstly Tasmania.

Tasmania uses Hare-Clark STV using the 5 federal divisions as electorates, with 5 members elected form each, resulting in 25 total members of the House of Assembly.

Braddon
Looking at a map you might think that Braddon is based on Tasmania's west coast, but you'd be wrong. The rugged, near-impenetrable wilderness of Tasmania's west coast is almost completely uninhabited. The population is centred on the Northwest coast, concentrated in Devonport and Burnie.
The Liberals will lose their fourth seat. Full Stop. The two questions are; firstly whether the Liberals lose their third seat, in which case Labor gain one and Lambie gains one, and more importantly, given that if the Liberals maintain 3 seats in any electorate, it'll be here, is who gains that fourth Liberal seat.
On balance I can't really see the Liberals dropping to two seats, so the important question is whether Lambie or Labor win that fourth seat. I have no idea, though when pushed I'd lean Labor.
2-3 LIB
1-2 LAB
0-1 JLN
2 Vulnerable seats:
Fourth Liberal seat - Prediction: Labor Gain
Third Liberal seat - Prediction: Liberal Hold


Bass
Bass is squarely centred on Tasmania's second city, Launceston. It also stretches to include the East Bank of the Tamar and the North East Coast.
Two seats are vulnerable, the third Liberal seat and the Greens seat, both to Labor. The question is if Labor can increase their vote enough for a second seat, and if they can then who do they take it from, the Liberals or the Greens.
2-3 LIB
1-2 LAB
0-1 GRN
2 Vulnerable seats:
Third Liberal seat - Prediction: Labor Gain
Green seat - Prediction: Greens Hold


Lyons
Lyons is a classic example of a bits-leftover electorate, containing many different regions that don't logically fit elsewhere. Spanning Tasmania's picturesque East Coast, the agricultural heartland of the Midlands, the West Bank of the Tamar, the northern suburbs of Hobart, the outskirts of Launceston and Devonport and all points in-between.
The vulnerable seat is the third Liberal seat. Though, in my opinion, slightly less vulnerable than their third seat in Franklin, by virtue of the reduced greens vote, it's still rather vulnerable. Unlike Franklin however, the seat is vulnerable to both Labor and the Greens. Although the Greens will improve I can't see them beat Labor and the Liberals to take the third seat.
2-3 LIB
2-3 LAB
0-1 GRN
1 Vulnerable seat:
Third Liberal seat - Prediction: Labor Gain


Franklin
Franklin spans Hobart's suburbs and outskirts, stretching to include Tasmania's uninhabited South West Wilderness.
The vulnerable seat is the Third Liberal seat. The Liberals where extremely lucky to get a third seat here in 2014, and this is probably their second most vulnerable seat behind their fourth in Braddon. I think Labor is definitely favoured to pick up a second seat. The greens seat isn't especially safe, but neither is it vulnerable.
2-3 LIB
1-2 LAB
1 GRN
1 Vulnerable seat:
Third Liberal seat - Prediction: Labor Gain


Denison
Denison contains Hobart's quaint CBD and inner suburbs.
The only vulnerable seat is the second Liberal seat to Labor, though if Labor picks it up then then they're almost certainly got more seats than the Liberals.
2-3 LAB
1-2 LIB
1 GRN
1 Vulnerable seat:
Second Liberal seat - Prediction: Liberal Hold

Total Results

9-11-14 LIB (-1-4-6)
7-11-12 LAB (+0-4-5)
2-3-4 GRN (-1/+0-1)
0-1 JLN (+0-1)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Last-minute Tasmanian prediction:

Bass: 3-2 (ALP gain from GRN)
Braddon: 3-2 (ALP gain from LIB)
Denison: 2-2-1
Franklin: 2-2-1 (ALP gain from LIB)
Lyons: 3-1-1

LIB: 13
ALP: 9
GRN: 3

Liberal majority (although reduced from 5 to 1)

You think the Greens will get a seat in Lyons?, other than that I'd agree with you're prediction.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

On current polling trends this could be the result in SA tomorrow:

LAB: 29.6%
LIB: 30.7%
SA-BEST: 22.2%
GRN: 6.8%
OTH: 10.5%

I've worked out a possible scenario using preference flows from 2016. If those flows were to be repeated tomorrow, this would be the chamber:

LAB: 18
SA-BEST: 15
LIB: 12
IND:1

Preferences aren't going to be anywhere near as favourable to Xenophon this time round, just about everyone is preferencing against them.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

My money is on Labor basically standing still in Victoria, they'll keep their majority, but it's not getting any bigger beyond the margin of error. Looking ahead to next year, show me a single person who thinks the Liberals are hanging on. They have a 2 seat majority and Labor needs only a 1.4% uniform swing for majority. On the plus side, however, Peter Dutton's seat of Dickson is seat 79 on uniform swing, and GetUp! will be going hard there, so although we have PM Shorten we also lose Minister Potato-head, MP.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

My money is on Labor basically standing still in Victoria, they'll keep their majority, but it's not getting any bigger beyond the margin of error. Looking ahead to next year, show me a single person who thinks the Liberals are hanging on. They have a 2 seat majority and Labor needs only a 1.4% uniform swing for majority. On the plus side, however, Peter Dutton's seat of Dickson is seat 79 on uniform swing, and GetUp! will be going hard there, so although we have PM Shorten we also lose Minister Potato-head, MP.

And in my home state, the Premier State my favourite current politician Gladys Berejiklian, my favourite from her days as Transport Minister, is going to have my enthusiastic support, and I think we'll (I sometimes talk in first-person about the Libs as I am a loyal party member and faithful Young Liberal) get over the line. Labor needs a 6% swing to overturn our majority, and a 9% swing for Majority. We'll lose a couple net seats but I'm sure we'll keep our majority. We're currently polling 52% TPP, and to keep our majority we just need to keep even with Labor and we'll be okay. Luke Foley is an empty suit, and an embarrassment to NSW Labor, who have produced some of the best Labor Politicians. Luke is flawed, opportunistic, and generates as much enthusiasm as a beige paint sale.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

My money is on Labor basically standing still in Victoria, they'll keep their majority, but it's not getting any bigger beyond the margin of error. Looking ahead to next year, show me a single person who thinks the Liberals are hanging on. They have a 2 seat majority and Labor needs only a 1.4% uniform swing for majority. On the plus side, however, Peter Dutton's seat of Dickson is seat 79 on uniform swing, and GetUp! will be going hard there, so although we have PM Shorten we also lose Minister Potato-head, MP.

And in my home state, the Premier State my favourite current politician Gladys Berejiklian, my favourite from her days as Transport Minister, is going to have my enthusiastic support, and I think we'll (I sometimes talk in first-person about the Libs as I am a loyal party member and faithful Young Liberal) get over the line. Labor needs a 6% swing to overturn our majority, and a 9% swing for Majority. We'll lose a couple net seats but I'm sure we'll keep our majority. We're currently polling 52% TPP, and to keep our majority we just need to keep even with Labor and we'll be okay. Luke Foley is an empty suit, and an embarrassment to NSW Labor, who have produced some of the best Labor Politicians. Luke is flawed, opportunistic, and generates as much enthusiasm as a beige paint sale.

And in the NSW Legislative Council you get true STV, 21 seats up for election, and giant ballot papers, including the famous 1999 "Tablecloth" Ballot (presented by Antony Green):

[AustralianSwingVoter]

50-52% Labor 2PP would probably still not be enough for them to win government anyway. the Libs will almost certainly hold onto government in NSW next year, although I'm not sure they'll win the 2PP.

In Victoria, I think that there will be a regional swing against Labor in the West, but they obviously will not lose anything because all the seats in that region are so damn safe for Labor. I think Labor will be in the mid to high 40s, with liberals in the low 30s, Nats maybe losing Morwell, and the Greens picking up Richmond. Sheed will also hold on in Shepparton, even with both the Liberals and Nationals running.

I think they'll be a swing against Labor in the Country, and a swing towards them in the City, emulating what happened in Queensland. And in NSW I think we can and will win the TPP, around 50-52. I think it's basically going to be a rerun of 2007.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Labor will kill it in the regional cities, I see trouble for Labor in the South-East Narre N/S/Cranbourne more than anything.

Yes the Labor vote will be weighed in Ballarat and Bendigo, but I still think that there will be a swing against them, just slightly reducing their dominance.