Biden to embark on a post debate train tour of Pennsylvania and Ohio (user search)
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  Biden to embark on a post debate train tour of Pennsylvania and Ohio (search mode)
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Author Topic: Biden to embark on a post debate train tour of Pennsylvania and Ohio  (Read 2245 times)
Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,835
United States


« on: September 27, 2020, 03:06:52 PM »

I LOVE THIS

(and Joe, once you've addressed America's 20-odd crises, we'd love some high speed rail)
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,835
United States


« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2020, 09:35:25 PM »

I LOVE THIS

(and Joe, once you've addressed America's 20-odd crises, we'd love some high speed rail)
Amtrak already runs "fast enough" Acela in the only truly viable market, although I think Brightline has identified two real contenders in Florida and Southern California due to their unique markets and geography.

HSR is usually a loser. One does not need to go very far to find a white elephant vanity project, like Athens-Thessaloniki, for every success story, like Madrid-Barcelona. And taking people from downtown to downtown only works in places where people are actually traveling downtown to downtown, which doesn't apply to most markets in the US, especially west of Chicago. And even when they're built, HSR only really benefits businesses and relatively well-off travelers. Poor people usually take the bus, not even the slow train.

HSR pretty vlearly makes sense in five parta of the USA: Florida, California/Vegas/Phoenix, the Texas Triangle, Cascadia, and broadly the area between Chicago, Boston, and Atlanta. This could approximately replace 25% of all plane trips and twice the cumulative number of car trips while inducing travel demand. It's worth it, even if proposals to bring it to Wichita or whatever are dumb.

Also, Aclea is a travesty. There's no excuse for NY-Washington taking more than 90 minutes.

Finally, your point about downtown to downtown is lacking. While orgins are spread out all over the place, destinations are usually extremely concentrated except for some VFR travel. Plus people generally live closer to downtown than an airport anyway.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,835
United States


« Reply #2 on: September 27, 2020, 11:43:27 PM »
« Edited: September 27, 2020, 11:51:22 PM by Blairite »

It's not only the time and distance of the journey itself that matters, but also the layout of the cities and the infrastructure on either end. Acela works (despite the infrastructure it runs on being crap) because a) you can actually get places without a car from Penn Station or Union Station (the NY to Boston stretch has no competitive advantage over flying, so it's excluded), and b) most important destinations are a short walk/cab ride away. Plus, there are big intermediate cities with strong demand like Baltimore and Philly to keep trains full. HSR does not work if too many people have to rent a car at their destination, because they could just fly to the airport (which is still faster and cheaper) and rent a car there instead, and get right on the Interstate rather than driving through busy downtown streets they're not familiar with. What's the point of having HSR to downtown Dallas when travelers' destinations are going to be all over the Metroplex, and you can't get around without a car? Florida and Las Vegas can only work because of the high number of tourists and conventioneers, who basically go to the same places.


The thing is, most business travelers and tourists are going to CBDs, even in America. Going to Atlanta for work? You'll probably be in Downtown, Buckhead, or Midtown. Going to Pittsburgh for school? You'll probably be in Oakland. Going to Los Angeles for fun? You'll probably be in Downtown, Hollywood, or Beverly Hills. And even if you are headed to the 'burbs, most HSR stations are closer than airports which make them pretty compelling if you'd otherwise fly. Going to see your mom in Norwalk? You're better off ubering or renting a car from Anaheim or LA Union Station than LAX.

And Acela is "fast enough", which is all it needs to be. The average speed of the nonstop Acela is 87mph between New York and DC, which is faster than the Paris-Toulouse TGV, and all but one (once-daily on weekdays, one-way) Edinburgh-London LNER train. The problem is that the Acela's price premium cannot be justified over the Northeast Regional or similar trains for all but business travelers, especially if you're getting off at an intermediate station.

It really isn't though. Self-respecting high speed rail averages well above 150mph. Sure, Amtrak might have a near-monopoly on Manhattan-DC traffic, but if it took 90 minutes from NY Penn (or Newark or Metropark or...) to DC (or New Carrollton or Alexandria or...), suddenly it gets a majority of the fly/drive/rail market from all of NY-NJ-CT to all of DC-MD-VA. The Northeast corridor is a bigger market than Tokyo-Nagoya-Osaka. It can support the best of the best.

One final point: In the Northeast, you're underrating the enormous pull of New York and how deeply undesirable it is to go with a car. Most people going to NY are going to the Island of Manhattan, and it's an awful lot of people. If you get serious HSR in on DC-NY, suddenly trips like Raleigh-New York, Pittsburgh-New York, Cleveland-New York, Detroit-New York, Toronto-New York, Charlotte-New York, Columbus-New York, Cincinnati-New York, etc. become viable in under 3 hours as each little addition to the network opens up travel pairs across the network. The same goes for Chicago, where most people are headed to the Loop and DC, where most people are headed to the L'Enfant City. These cities are bigger pulls than London, Paris, Madrid, Milan, etc. The amount of inbound traffic to these three cities alone that doesn't want a car on the far end is enormous, and the closeness of each city is such that just 100 miles of new rail can add 4 or 5 top-tier city pairs. But if it's gonna take 3 hours from DC-NY, you can forget about OH-NY or NC-NY or IN-NY.
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