2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Your map has 3 Clinton districts and 4 Trump ones. That just isn't going to go ahead. I am confident that there will be 4 Twin Cities districts that are all Clinton+10 or better.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Your map has 3 Clinton districts and 4 Trump ones. That just isn't going to go ahead. I am confident that there will be 4 Twin Cities districts that are all Clinton+10 or better.

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Wut

You honestly think a Dem trifecta would draw anything but? The urban cores will be split four ways and the three rural districts will be packed. Any 4R-3D map is an obvious nonstarter.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Your map has 3 Clinton districts and 4 Trump ones. That just isn't going to go ahead. I am confident that there will be 4 Twin Cities districts that are all Clinton+10 or better.

[/b]

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Wut

You honestly think a Dem trifecta would draw anything but? The urban cores will be split four ways and the three rural districts will be packed. Any 4R-3D map is an obvious nonstarter.

It's not a D trifecta though

I thought it was basically a lock to become one in 2020, or do I have that off?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Your map has 3 Clinton districts and 4 Trump ones. That just isn't going to go ahead. I am confident that there will be 4 Twin Cities districts that are all Clinton+10 or better.

.....


Wut

You honestly think a Dem trifecta would draw anything but? The urban cores will be split four ways and the three rural districts will be packed. Any 4R-3D map is an obvious nonstarter.

It's not a D trifecta though

even a D trifecta would be unlikely to do that. Placing Minneapolis with non-neglible parts of Rice County,  or even all of Carver? Not gonna happen.
Seriously, a blatant gerrymander of any sort is 95% off the table.

There's no need to bring in Rice, and I don't see 3R-4D as a blatant gerrymander. Basically, Hennepin, Ramsey, Washington, Chisago, Anoka, Wright, Carver, Scott, and Dakota add up to a perfect four districts which voted 59-41 Clinton-Trump. Not that hard to turn that area into 4 safe Dem districts. I get that DFL is all about good governance, but this really isn't that hard of a lift.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Your map has 3 Clinton districts and 4 Trump ones. That just isn't going to go ahead. I am confident that there will be 4 Twin Cities districts that are all Clinton+10 or better.

.....


Wut

You honestly think a Dem trifecta would draw anything but? The urban cores will be split four ways and the three rural districts will be packed. Any 4R-3D map is an obvious nonstarter.

It's not a D trifecta though

even a D trifecta would be unlikely to do that. Placing Minneapolis with non-neglible parts of Rice County,  or even all of Carver? Not gonna happen.
Seriously, a blatant gerrymander of any sort is 95% off the table.

There's no need to bring in Rice, and I don't see 3R-4D as a blatant gerrymander. Basically, Hennepin, Ramsey, Washington, Chisago, Anoka, Wright, Carver, Scott, and Dakota add up to a perfect four districts which voted 59-41 Clinton-Trump. Not that hard to turn that area into 4 safe Dem districts. I get that DFL is all about good governance, but this really isn't that hard of a lift.

4 Clinton +10 districts in a state that was Clinton +2 is definitely a gerrymander. A fair map would probably be 3-1-3, with the 1 either taking up the territory of the current second or a more conservative third.

It also has 3 Trump+10 districts. I'm generally not convinced by the promote competitive seats argument and instead prefer to lock in districts to match the rough partisan breakdown of a state.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Your map has 3 Clinton districts and 4 Trump ones. That just isn't going to go ahead. I am confident that there will be 4 Twin Cities districts that are all Clinton+10 or better.

.....


Wut

You honestly think a Dem trifecta would draw anything but? The urban cores will be split four ways and the three rural districts will be packed. Any 4R-3D map is an obvious nonstarter.

It's not a D trifecta though

even a D trifecta would be unlikely to do that. Placing Minneapolis with non-neglible parts of Rice County,  or even all of Carver? Not gonna happen.
Seriously, a blatant gerrymander of any sort is 95% off the table.

There's no need to bring in Rice, and I don't see 3R-4D as a blatant gerrymander. Basically, Hennepin, Ramsey, Washington, Chisago, Anoka, Wright, Carver, Scott, and Dakota add up to a perfect four districts which voted 59-41 Clinton-Trump. Not that hard to turn that area into 4 safe Dem districts. I get that DFL is all about good governance, but this really isn't that hard of a lift.

4 Clinton +10 districts in a state that was Clinton +2 is definitely a gerrymander. A fair map would probably be 3-1-3, with the 1 either taking up the territory of the current second or a more conservative third.

It also has 3 Trump+10 districts. I'm generally not convinced by the promote competitive seats argument and instead prefer to lock in districts to match the rough partisan breakdown of a state.

So it's fair if Trump wins the state in 2020 with just 3 seats despite the political geography of the state favoring him too? Hmm.

Trump is not coming close to winning Minnesota in 2020. Sorry bud.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Or you can just start cutting the cities:



MN-01: Trump+16
MN-02: Trump+30
MN-03: Trump+16
MN-04: Clinton+13
MN-05: Clinton+25
MN-06: Clinton+15
MN-07: Clinton+17

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Or you can just start cutting the cities:



MN-01: Trump+16
MN-02: Trump+30
MN-03: Trump+16
MN-04: Clinton+13
MN-05: Clinton+25
MN-06: Clinton+15
MN-07: Clinton+17

Are you saying for a D gerrymander or a court map. Unsure about a D gerrymander trichopping Minneapolis but I wouldn't be shocked.
A court map would never chop the cities like that. The fact of the matter is that any court map has to accept that Ds are much more packed into those 2 cities than rural Rs are packed.

Dem gerry, of course. I expect something like this if Dems flip the senate. Otherwise, it'll probably be my 3 non-Twin Cities districts, Minneapolis+Bloomington, rest of Hennepin+Anoka, Ramsey+Washington, and a Southern suburban district.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Or you can just start cutting the cities:

snip

MN-01: Trump+16
MN-02: Trump+30
MN-03: Trump+16
MN-04: Clinton+13
MN-05: Clinton+25
MN-06: Clinton+15
MN-07: Clinton+17

Are you saying for a D gerrymander or a court map. Unsure about a D gerrymander trichopping Minneapolis but I wouldn't be shocked.
A court map would never chop the cities like that. The fact of the matter is that any court map has to accept that Ds are much more packed into those 2 cities than rural Rs are packed.

Dem gerry, of course. I expect something like this if Dems flip the senate. Otherwise, it'll probably be my 3 non-Twin Cities districts, Minneapolis+Bloomington, rest of Hennepin+Anoka, Ramsey+Washington, and a Southern suburban district.

Try to check incumbents residencies if you can. Your yellow district would either pit Phillips vs Omar or Omar would have to run in the brown district in a slightly competitive district for her.

I honestly thought they might like to screw Omar out of a district. I can adjust that, but do you know exactly where in Minneapolis she lives?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

With 7 seats, it's pretty obviously gonna be 4 dem seats in the Twin Cities and 3 gop seats in the rurals.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

With 7 seats, it's pretty obviously gonna be 4 dem seats in the Twin Cities and 3 gop seats in the rurals.

hard to get 4 dem seats without cracking the cities, which wont happen.  you can get 2 urban d+1 suburban d OR 2 suburban swing seats

It's doable if you crack Hennepin but not Minneapolis:

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

With 7 seats, it's pretty obviously gonna be 4 dem seats in the Twin Cities and 3 gop seats in the rurals.

hard to get 4 dem seats without cracking the cities, which wont happen.  you can get 2 urban d+1 suburban d OR 2 suburban swing seats

It's doable if you crack Hennepin but not Minneapolis:

what are the numbers on those?

Green: Clinton+43
Teal: Clinton+19
Brown: Clinton+6 (but Trump only at 43)
Yellow: Clinton+5 (but Trump only at 43)

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

a Minny/SP split benefits D's from a partisan perspective. 

It's not clear that it does. A combined MSP district could very well produce 3 likely D suburban seats.