2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'd like to see NJ-4 become an Ocean County centered district with parts of southern Monmouth and get removed from the Trenton area entirely.   

Then NJ-3 can be focused on Mercer (Trenton) and Burlington counties, and NJ-2 can be the southern "Van Drew" district.

I'm also kind of hoping that a Republican district can get drawn up north, since I really think a 9D - 3R delegation will be a lot more stable than 10D - 2R going forward.



Pretty sure the AA district and Hispanic district in the NYC suburbs are set in stone,  not much else you can do there.

If you want to do that, then making Gottheimer's district an R sink is probably the easiest thing, like this:



This gives you:
NJ 1: D+52 (Sires)
NJ 2: D+26 (Pascrell)
NJ 3: D+69 (Payne)
NJ 4: D+28 (Pallone)
NJ 5: D+19 (Sherrill)
NJ 6: R+17 (Gottheimer)
NJ 7: D+17 (Malinowski)
NJ 8: D+27 (Norcross)
NJ 9: D+27 (Kim)
NJ 10: D+8 (Watson Coleman)
NJ 11: R+24 (Smith)
NJ 12: D+4 (Van Drew)

Might have some VRA issues that can be cleaned up in NJ 1, and NJ 10 can probably be shored up a bit, but this is roughly how it would be done. Given Van Drew is in a (right-trending) D+4 seat, though, it might be better to unpack NJ 8 and get 10 D+10 or better seats.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'd like to see NJ-4 become an Ocean County centered district with parts of southern Monmouth and get removed from the Trenton area entirely.   

Then NJ-3 can be focused on Mercer (Trenton) and Burlington counties, and NJ-2 can be the southern "Van Drew" district.

I'm also kind of hoping that a Republican district can get drawn up north, since I really think a 9D - 3R delegation will be a lot more stable than 10D - 2R going forward.



Pretty sure the AA district and Hispanic district in the NYC suburbs are set in stone,  not much else you can do there.

If you want to do that, then making Gottheimer's district an R sink is probably the easiest thing, like this:



This gives you:
NJ 1: D+52 (Sires)
NJ 2: D+26 (Pascrell)
NJ 3: D+69 (Payne)
NJ 4: D+28 (Pallone)
NJ 5: D+19 (Sherrill)
NJ 6: R+17 (Gottheimer)
NJ 7: D+17 (Malinowski)
NJ 8: D+27 (Norcross)
NJ 9: D+27 (Kim)
NJ 10: D+8 (Watson Coleman)
NJ 11: R+24 (Smith)
NJ 12: D+4 (Van Drew)

Might have some VRA issues that can be cleaned up in NJ 1, and NJ 10 can probably be shored up a bit, but this is roughly how it would be done. Given Van Drew is in a (right-trending) D+4 seat, though, it might be better to unpack NJ 8 and get 10 D+10 or better seats.

It's possible. This map has both Watson Coleman and Van Drew in D+10 districts.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Murphy should try to appoint Malinowski in 2021 to some statewide position so they can draw a north NJ sink that would probably shift NJ 11th and NJ 5th by like 8-12 points left and make them effectively Safe D, the main problem however is NJ 3rd, Chris smith will want Hamilton and Bonnie Watson will want Trenton of course which border each other,  Which doesnt allow Kim to take in D leaning/even territory to the north of him. In the South there is Camden county which is Camden and also has some rich white suburbs like Cherry Hill. Norcross is from here and is EXTREMELY powerful, Kim can be shored up with some D leaning territory here but it will only happen if Norcross lets it happen, and even then it would only be like 100-150k people but that would be enough for Kim and the rest of the territory could come from Ocean county which is very GOP but the only remaining option. However this forces Ocean to be split 3 times.

Or you can just screw Smith over and carve out Ewing Township for Watson-Coleman. Or just have people run outside their districts/move. Regardless, except for Sherrill, Malinowski has the most durably Democratic of the 2018 flips and giving that up seems like a very poor decision to me. Better to give Gottheimer something and make his seat an R sink.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Decided to see if Oryx's incumbent protection plan can be shored up even more and use the new 2018 population figures. It looks gross, but this map is population-adjusted with every incumbent in a seat that voted for their party by at least 10 points in 2016.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Did a map: