2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

TBH, I think the best option with Washtenaw is pairing it with Monroe, Lenawee, and Western Wayne. It's kind of awkward as a COI but it does become a compact Detroit exurban seat. Move the Grosse Pointes into Macomb and it leaves behind a compact two Detroit districts--mitigating any need to split the Wayne/Oakland county line.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Yes, as a CoI it's awkward, but it stays mostly in metro Detroit and it leaves space for a nice-shaped Lansing-Jackson seat to its West (or alternatively Kalamazoo-Battle Creek-Jackson). It might be the least bad solution.

Yep. Personally I favor the Kalamazoo option. Take the six relevant counties and half of Lenawee and you have a really clean district.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Did a fair Michigan map where I murdered county lines in pursuit of COIs and compactness. Barring a landslide, it's 6R-5D-2S. Dingell and Moolenar both lose their districts (they could challenge Tlaib and Kildee, respectively) and an open Lansing-Kalamazoo district is created.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

The Lansing-Kalamazoo district looks like a deliberate choice that can be justified by "pairing two mid-sized metros with an orientation towards science and education" or something like that. It's not perfectly compact and gives vibes of partisan linedrawing but altogether it's probably defensible.

The Jackson-Southern Wayne district needs a very good explanation. What CoI is that seat supposed to represent? It's not particularly compact either if you define compactness by minimizing distances between people in the same district.

To understand how this map turned out, you have to consider where I started. I initially drew the Flint-Saginaw-Bay City and Thumb-Exurban Detroit seats. After slotting in the Oakland, Macomb, and Detroit seats, Downriver Wayne and Monroe had an annoying population that wouldn't pair with Washtenaw without an annoying split, caused by my choice to put Southfield in with Detroit to push both VRA seats above 45% AA. Thus, I chose to pair it with Jackson and some rurals to avoid splitting up a natural Ann Arbor COI, even though there's not much inherently linking the two areas.

As for Lansing and Kalamazoo, it's pretty simple. I didn't want to split the Grand Rapids and Southwest Michigan COIs so the only option without splitting Lansing and/or Kalamazoo-Battle Creek (a no-go in my opinion) was to pair the two.

I also think pairing Ann Arbor with Livingston and outer Oakland is probably the best choice from a COI perspective, so I'm happy with how that turned out.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

The Lansing-Kalamazoo district looks like a deliberate choice that can be justified by "pairing two mid-sized metros with an orientation towards science and education" or something like that. It's not perfectly compact and gives vibes of partisan linedrawing but altogether it's probably defensible.

The Jackson-Southern Wayne district needs a very good explanation. What CoI is that seat supposed to represent? It's not particularly compact either if you define compactness by minimizing distances between people in the same district.

To understand how this map turned out, you have to consider where I started. I initially drew the Flint-Saginaw-Bay City and Thumb-Exurban Detroit seats. After slotting in the Oakland, Macomb, and Detroit seats, Downriver Wayne and Monroe had an annoying population that wouldn't pair with Washtenaw without an annoying split, caused by my choice to put Southfield in with Detroit to push both VRA seats above 45% AA. Thus, I chose to pair it with Jackson and some rurals to avoid splitting up a natural Ann Arbor COI, even though there's not much inherently linking the two areas.

As for Lansing and Kalamazoo, it's pretty simple. I didn't want to split the Grand Rapids and Southwest Michigan COIs so the only option without splitting Lansing and/or Kalamazoo-Battle Creek (a no-go in my opinion) was to pair the two.

I also think pairing Ann Arbor with Livingston and outer Oakland is probably the best choice from a COI perspective, so I'm happy with how that turned out.

Yes, the problem is quite clear after all:

You start by creating the Flint-Saginaw-Bay City district, which blocks any possibility to shift around seats north of Livingston/Oakland.
St. Clair + Lapeer + Tuscola + Sanilac + Huron is slightly less than half a district quota (0.488 to be precise).
Wayne + Oakland + Macomb is 5.067 quotas, if you add Livingston, Washtenaw and Monroe you arrive at 5.986 quotas which is quite good. If you then add the Thumb you get 6.474 quotas and that's the problem. The best solution could be to take out Washtenaw (0.478 quotas) because then you're left with 5.996 quotas which is near perfection and Washtenaw would be difficult CoI-wise anyways.

Or you have the balls to do this and draw a Flint-Saginaw-Bay City district and a Huron Shore district that doesn't go to far into metro Detroit:

Right. But I don't like either of those options so I cut Monroe and Downriver Wayne instead. Very early in the map-making process you have to choose whether to:

1. Do the ugly Thumb/Huron shore thing
2. Cut Midland/Bay City from Saginaw/Flint
3. Pair Washtenaw with Western Michigan
4. Pair Monroe/Downriver Wayne with Western Michigan.

I think 2 and 4 are the best options, and I picked the latter.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Right. But I don't like either of those options so I cut Monroe and Downriver Wayne instead. Very early in the map-making process you have to choose whether to:

1. Do the ugly Thumb/Huron shore thing
2. Cut Midland/Bay City from Saginaw/Flint
3. Pair Washtenaw with Western Michigan
4. Pair Monroe/Downriver Wayne with Western Michigan.

I think 2 and 4 are the best options, and I picked the latter.

Also, I'm somewhat curious why you prefer 4 as well. Monroe I get since it's sort of its own thing (IIRC not in the Detroit metro?) but downriver Wayne is still pretty close to the heart of metro Detroit.

Mostly because of what it borders. Downriver Wayne is very white and to its north are the two AA VRA seats separating it from the rest of the metro. The less white territory these seats take in the better, especially since they already have to deal with Dearborn and Western Wayne. Thus, Downriver has to go somewhere else. It's also sort of a cohesive cultural area with Monroe--the urban and suburban equivalent of NE Philly and Lower Bucks. It also allows for 48%+ VRA seats without a tentacle to Pontiac.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Downriver Split:



Midland Split:



Flint/Ann Arbor Split: