Is this a plausible map for 2024?

[Meatball Ron]

Plausible except for ME-AL

[Meatball Ron]

Plausible except for ME-AL

Do you care to explain why ME-AL is out of reach for Republicans. It was very close in 2016, and much like the states of the Rust Belt and Midwest, Maine is becoming older, whiter, and less educated. I agree ME-01 is out of reach for Republicans, but why can't the rural, white, old population of Maine-02 combined with some Republicans in Maine-01 outvote the Democratic votersof Maine-01.

I never said it's out of reach - just not a plausible flip in a scenario where Dems are holding closer states like Michigan, Georgia, New Hampshire, Nevada, etc. Clinton underperformed heavily in New England (only winning NH by a point, tighter margins than usual in blue states like VT and RI) so I'm not sure that's the best benchmark. We'll see in '24 whether Hillary's performance or Biden's performance was the outlier.

Also, I'm not sure I believe the state is "becoming older, whiter, and less educated." Rather, that demographic that exists in ME-02 is trending GOP, I agree, but that area is also hemorrhaging population; the growth in the state is in the younger, more educated Portland area.