2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota

[Meatball Ron]

Soooooo, in light of the news that MN will unexpectedly keep its 8th seat, what do we expect will happen here? Presumably the lower-growth seats (01, 07, 08) will have to expand a bit and the higher-growth seats in the Twin Cities metro will have to grow?

Perhaps MN-02 sheds some of its more conservative areas to MN-01, locking in a 4-4 as opposed to possibility of a 5-3 result for either party. Seems like a fair outcome, very slightly D-favorable relative to the current state of affairs which feels appropriate given they control more of the state's government.

[Meatball Ron]

How would one draw a least change map that results in the following:
*MN-02 becomes a few points friendlier for Dems (Biden +7 --> Biden +11ish)
*MN-01 becomes a few points friendlier for Dems (Trump +10 --> Trump +5ish)
*MN-03, MN-04, and MN-05 remain safe for Dems

Presumably MN-06, MN-07, and MN-08 take in even more GOP turf but what would the mechanics be here? Presumably MN-02 takes in some of the Southern part of MN-04, MN-05, or MN-03 (wherever the most Dem friendly votes are), and then MN-01 sheds some conservative turf to MN-07, but where do its Dem votes come from? Would love to see this mapped if anyone knows how.

PS - my interest in this is because this is what I would consider a "fair" / partisan proportional map for Minnesota. It's essentially 4-4, but since this is a Dem state, there's a Dem advantage in the sense that all four Dem seats are safe but one of the four GOP seats is competitive.

[Meatball Ron]

Tried a swingy MN-1; worked out a bit better I think. Anoka County is split 4 ways though.

Thank you!

Agreed that a 4-1-3 is challenging to make seem clean given the geography