State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Meatball Ron]

I mean...the OK-22 senate race appears to actually be a Dem over performance relative to...2018.

That’s even if you give the R’a a few extra points this time considering that Bice was an incumbent (and that still matters in local elections)

Yea, but we are talking margin of error here.

More interesting result is still how huge the EV/ED vote divide is.

that isn't going away.

Margin of error or not, any over performance or underperformance can’t be brushed off without some extreme circumstances. This isn’t proof of anything obviously, it’s one tiny race, but it’s a datapoint.

I disagree. The average overperformance compared to 2020 results so far in 2021 state-level special elections has been about 2.3 R.

That doesn't mean jack. squat imo.

Source on the 2.3 point R over-performance? There is a tracker that circulates on Twitter (I am struggling to find it right now but will edit this post when I do) that most recently showed a slight Democratic over-performance in fact.

[Meatball Ron]

I mean...the OK-22 senate race appears to actually be a Dem over performance relative to...2018.

That’s even if you give the R’a a few extra points this time considering that Bice was an incumbent (and that still matters in local elections)

Yea, but we are talking margin of error here.

More interesting result is still how huge the EV/ED vote divide is.

that isn't going away.

Margin of error or not, any over performance or underperformance can’t be brushed off without some extreme circumstances. This isn’t proof of anything obviously, it’s one tiny race, but it’s a datapoint.

I disagree. The average overperformance compared to 2020 results so far in 2021 state-level special elections has been about 2.3 R.

That doesn't mean jack. squat imo.

Source on the 2.3 point R over-performance? There is a tracker that circulates on Twitter (I am struggling to find it right now but will edit this post when I do) that most recently showed a slight Democratic over-performance in fact.

Here is the link :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vf9-VFavJ3lyYsSrKX1ECuP5DyVlegDtG-UJLpQvh7s/edit#gid=702358838

Thank you!

So yes - slight Democratic overperformance. Nothing we can read into I suspect.

Edit: ah, I am noticing these calcs are based on 2016 numbers. An overperformance of Clinton may not translate to an overperformance of Biden, since Biden did better than Clinton. The tracker circulating on Twitter that I was referring to I *believe* had mostly Biden 2020 #s and only calculated swing for races for which 2020 data was available.