How would Utah (and SE Idaho) vote without Mormonism?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Colorado and Utah aren't interchangeable. Colorado is what it is because the state happens to contain a very densely mountainous region attracting a lot of wealthy liberals and young outdoors types - think skiiers and backpackers. Outside of the Wasatch Front there isn't really that much that's comparable in Utah. This means not just the mountainous areas but the character of the urban area that benefits from the growth and development will be different. Geographically, Utah is straight Basin and Range, closer to Nevada than it is to Colorado. The best analog to Utah in the state of Colorado is the Western Slope and Colorado Plateau, which outside of a handful of ski areas like Telluride aren't really that Democratic.

Salt Lake City isn't a carbon copy of Denver - I actually think without Mormon influence it would look like a fusion of Denver and Reno. It's larger than Reno, but presumably in a universe without Mormonism SLC hasn't experienced the same growth.

So I think Utah without Mormonism looks (as you would expect geographically) to be a fusion of Nevada and Colorado, although probably with less Hispanic influence than Nevada has because Utah has no analog for Las Vegas. You have to make some assumptions about what SLC looks like without Mormons to reach any sort of definitive answer on how it would vote. It would be a 2020 battleground but also competitive (probably moreso than either CO or NV) 2008 - 2016.

Eastern Idaho would be identically conservative.