KY, MS etc. Results Thread (user search)
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  KY, MS etc. Results Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: KY, MS etc. Results Thread  (Read 46909 times)
💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,534
United States


« on: November 05, 2019, 10:48:22 PM »

Tishomingo County fully reported (ancestral Blue Dog/Hood turf) and Hood is +11 over Clinton and +7 over Espy. 

Saw somewhere on Twitter that his AG 2015 margin in Tishomingo was something like 25... he's underperforming in rural areas of the state.


Whereabouts are IceSpear/TrendsAreReal/etc? Guess trends aren't real anymore, huh?

KY is an obvious miss (and these dudes deserve to get mocked) but the trends are holding in MS and VA.

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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,534
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2019, 09:05:08 AM »

Any reason why Democrats fared better in the VA House (54-56 seats) compared to the State Senate?

2 seats flip in Senate is proportionate to 5 in House, so the results are pretty similar.

Yes, but the Senate hadn't been up in the Trump-era. Lots of surburban/exurban Rs holding on because upballot realignment hadn't reached the state-house yet. There was much lower hanging fruit there compared to the House of Dels where Ds were able to pick off most of the gimme races two years ago.

It looks to me like there some big whiffs in HRO (where Rs rebounded in Virginia Beach especially in SD8 and SD11), and in some Richmond and DC exurbs (close loss in SD12 and less close losses in SD11 and SD28). I also want to look at some results in SD17 where a district spanning Fredericksburg to Charlottesville and went to Northam by something like 4 points reelected a Republican narrowly.
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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,534
United States


« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2019, 07:26:13 PM »

I haven't read the entire thread but has nobody made the connection that Bevin is unpopular because he's trying to take away people's healthcare? Downballot nobodies can get away with this because they weren't the public face of dismantling a popular government program.

People are acting like Bevin is unpopular because he's ugly or he smells bad or something like that. He's unpopular for a reason! And that reason is a thing that also makes Donald Trump unpopular! Bevin doesn't operate in a vaccuum - he is the way he is because he's a Republican and Republicans think poor people shouldn't have subsidized health care. So does Donald Trump. So do many Republicans. Similar things will happen in 2020.
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