What if Trump wasn't the cause of gop decline in suburbs? (user search)
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  What if Trump wasn't the cause of gop decline in suburbs? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What if Trump wasn't the cause of gop decline in suburbs?  (Read 1809 times)
💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,535
United States


« on: May 26, 2019, 10:32:12 PM »

Trump won the suburbs by more than Romney did. He just did worse in a certain kind of suburb, one that people think of as the stereotypical suburb. But its voters don't necessarily count more than less wealthy suburbs.
Are you sure of this?
After all, under the EC & Senate electoral rules, rurals voters count more than urban voters.

Not really though. Using the Census definition - not exactly right, but as good as any available when it comes to measuring a classification as subjective as rurality - Pennsylvania has about ten times as many rural voters as Vermont. New York has ten times more rural voters than North Dakota.

Most rural voters live in large, populous states, just like everybody else. It's true that Senate representation elevates some parochial concerns more than others, but the electoral college has nothing to do with cities in intent and little to do with them in its effect.

The people who purvey this myth are either Democrats stoking resentment against the countryside or Republicans stoking resentment against cities. In all cases they are ignorant of our country's history, politics, and geography.

I don't think this proves your claim as well as you think. Pointing out that most rural voters live in large states ignores the fact that there are still many rural voters that, in effect, have states to themselves more or less without having to compete against urban voters. There are a handful of states that have the opposite problem (think: Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland) which alleviate this somewhat but on balance it does favor rural voters (if you are thinking strictly about a rural-urban divide and ignoring subgroups within each coalition). This is less true in the electoral college because the states are closer to evenly-weighted than the Senate but the difference in the Senate is more than "parochial".

The median state is certainly more white and rural than the median voter but as far as proportional representation goes the real problem with the electoral college is that it means that it's in candidates' mutual best interest to focus on a small number of swing states.
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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,535
United States


« Reply #1 on: May 26, 2019, 11:04:54 PM »

Sorry - wasn't trying to draw an equivalence between swing states and rural states (in part because which states are "swing states" changes over time). I brought up swing states because that's a more egregious case of disproportionate representation than "rural/urban states".

I agree about your point that what is rural is poorly defined. I have a good friend from a town of <20K people two hours from a major metro area who does not consider himself to be rural. This is also complicated by, e.g., college towns, resort towns/areas, and rural retirement destinations. I am very hesitant to accept the claim that "urban populations are large majorities in most states" especially using census definitions. The would probably count places like Watertown SD as urban even though in many ways they identify just as much with "rural consciousness" than they would people of Minneapolis or even Sioux Falls.
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