Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Journal Sentinel updated to 80%. Has Walworth and Grant 100% in, so safe to say those are both incorporated into DDHQ's numbers.

Outagamie still at 7%, La Crosse still at 33%, Juneau, Richland and Crawford still at 0%. Dane has four precincts left and Milwaukee has three.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Hagedorn is up by 1.5% at DDHQ.

Mega-oof.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

So how does the inside of everybody's navel look right now?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

No matter the result, electing state supreme court justices is dumb and bad.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Hagedorn's margin just narrowed to 0.2% with 94% in, this may not be completely over

Outagamie is still sitting at 14% reported. There's no way Neubauer can close it all the way.

NOw 95%, 3.5K. Was ~6K just a moment ago. WTF is this.

All of Driftless outside of Richland and a little bit of La Crosse is in. Dems are maxed out with the exception of some of Richland and Portage.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I reckon Atlas will be seeing a "D-Minnesota" tagline under my username in the next 5-6 months if Hagedorn wins! My faith in WI Dems have officially been tainted.

But where will you get Spotted Cow??

This is why you don't call races, done until they are, Neubauer definitely still has a path left only being down 0.4% with 96% in

0.4% is 4K votes. Even if you get some really awesome returns from the 80% outstanding in Outagamie you probably only cut that lead by 500 votes at best. Portage is also probably only like 200-300 net. That's not even counting Rusk which will be a solid Hagedorn.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Was going to reply to a post in the other thread, but:

Re: Outagamie oustanding precincts, the 18 that have reported so far are villages and townships. All of the Appleton precincts, which should be more favorable to Neubauer, are still out.

Obviously there aren't enough votes there to make a difference but this will narrow the margin a little bit.

e: https://www.outagamie.org/government/departments-a-e/county-clerk/elections/election-results

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Lol, Neubauer is going to win more counties than Evers.

Clearly, we need an electoral college-style system here in Wisconsin.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Was going to reply to a post in the other thread, but:

Re: Outagamie oustanding precincts, the 18 that have reported so far are villages and townships. All of the Appleton precincts, which should be more favorable to Neubauer, are still out.

Obviously there aren't enough votes there to make a difference but this will narrow the margin a little bit.

e: https://www.outagamie.org/government/departments-a-e/county-clerk/elections/election-results

What do you know about Trempaleau, when we those votes coming in

MJS has Trempaleau 100% in. Neubauer netted something silly like 30 votes there.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Here is your quasi-final map per the Journal-Sentinel.



122 precincts left. Outagamie still has 70-80 precincts left, Door and Madison have 2 left, Pierce, Manitowoc, Sheboygan and Polk have 1. Not sure about the rest. Pierce is currently decided by 30 votes.

Neubauer lost Kenosha (which Evers won) but won Trempealeau, Door and Lafayette which Evers lost.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

If you had shown me just that map, I would have guessed something like Neubauer +6 or 7.

Yep, MKE screwing the pooch again.

Also, are those 200ish precincts out early votes? If so, this is not over yet.

I don't know about early votes but I read on the twitterverse that absentees have already been counted. Most of the outstanding precincts are the Appleton area.

Those Outagamie precincts are slowly coming in. Kaukauna (Appleton suburb) had Hagedorn getting stomped, Seymour (weirdly small rural town) was a near-tie. I be Appleton proper precincts will favor Neubauer when they come in but obviously nowhere near the Madison-level numbers she would need to make up a 4K vote shortfall.

e: https://www.outagamie.org/government/departments-a-e/county-clerk/elections/election-results look for the precincts prefixed with "C of" (for city of).

e2: I messed up - Hagedorn won comfortably in Seymour and lost by six votes in Kaukauna.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Screnock ran/had a bad campaign run for him. Hagedorn ran a good campaign. Screnock was a decent candidate, but Hagedorn either knew how to run or knew who to ask and Screnock didn’t. Political awareness vs just being a judge.

Can this be elaborated on or is it the typical Atlas post-election history revision where a bad campaign turns into a good campaign just because they stumbled into a win? Because it's still very possible if not the most likely explanation for most elections that a candidate won regardless of how "good" or "bad" their campaign was.

Worth noting that we shouldn't even be debating whether or not Hagedorn ran a "good campaign" and had good "political awareness" because a system where a judge has to do either of those things is repulsive.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

It is comical for anyone to regard Wisconsin as "Safe R" based on an election with higher Republican enthusiasm and turnout.

Nobody is saying this, lol. By definition both sides have a roughly equally likely chance of winning a toss up. Just so happens that, for whatever reason, Republicans came out on top yesterday. Hold the race a week earlier or a week later and maybe things are different. That's the way this game works.

also to everybody else who is trying to seriously argue with Xing's post: that's a poop post and he's trying to make a point that you guys all agree on

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

State Sen. Dave Hansen (D-SD30) retiring, potential GOP pickup as the district has been trending R.

https://www.wpr.org/green-bay-state-sen-dave-hansen-wont-seek-re-election

A GOP supermajority in the state Senate is within reach.  It’s possible they could pick this up (Dems won it 51.3-48.7 in 2016), as well as Patty Schachtner’s seat (SD10, she’s the Doug Jones of Wisconsin), and Minority Leader Jennifer Shilling’s seat (SD32, held onto her seat by 56 votes in 2016).

Question for you (or any of my other Badger-bros): I'm assuming there are no possible R->D flips to offset these potential losses, else they would have been won over in 2018?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

A Wisconsin State Senate institution is retiring:

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1243269480546996224?s=20

The Democratic Primary for this seat is gonna be nuts.

Kelda Roys announced this morning she is in.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Why did Evers wait so long before trying to play the executive order card if he was going to do it in the end? Even doing this two weeks ago could have helped prevent some histrionics and allowed fro better contingency planning.

Because it was obviously the last resort after a suite of more desirable options.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1247800837889351682
https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1247901803980582912

Yeah, turnout in the rurals for absentees was bad, but it wouldn't take much on election day for those numbers to be close to normal.

If absentees are down by THAT much across the board in an election where the proportional share of absentee votes is way up due to the current health crisis, I don't expect in-person voting to even come close to making up for it.

Meh. I suspect people in rural areas (probably correctly) assume the virus is not widespread where they live, and therefore assume that in person voting is fine.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Douglas (Superior) drops, net 2K for rofsky

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

County updates:

Outagamie (60% in) flips to a 500 vote Karofsky lead.
Portage (<50% in) at an exactly 500 vote Karofsky lead (very aesthetic 4200-3700 tally right now)
Monroe (3 precincts left) is ending up Kelly +4%.

I'm really amazed at how narrow some of these rural margins are for Kelly. Wood +5, Juneau +7, St. Croix +1. Nothing out of Pierce yet but that could easily end up something absurd like Kelly +3 and there's a very outside chance that the Rof could win it.

e: right as I posted Columbia dropped all but two precincts and is Karofsky +16. Her margin is at 95K right now and with so much of Dane out she's easily going to crush 100K.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

County updates:

Outagamie (60% in) flips to a 500 vote Karofsky lead.
Portage (<50% in) at an exactly 500 vote Karofsky lead (very aesthetic 4200-3700 tally right now)
Monroe (3 precincts left) is ending up Kelly +4%.

I'm really amazed at how narrow some of these rural margins are for Kelly. Wood +5, Juneau +7, St. Croix +1. Nothing out of Pierce yet but that could easily end up something absurd like Kelly +3 and there's a very outside chance that the Rof could win it.

e: right as I posted Columbia dropped all but two precincts and is Karofsky +16. Her margin is at 95K right now and with so much of Dane out she's easily going to crush 100K.

St. Croix isn't exactly rural. It's more exurban, on it's way towards becoming suburban. The county is one of the few bright spots in the state when it comes to democratic trends.

Sure but Baldwin lost it by five in 2018, Evers got crushed there (-15) and even Dallett only barely pulled it out while outperformed Karofsky on all of the river counties. One and a half years of MSP spillover is not really enough to account for shifts that large.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

County updates:

Outagamie (60% in) flips to a 500 vote Karofsky lead.
Portage (<50% in) at an exactly 500 vote Karofsky lead (very aesthetic 4200-3700 tally right now)
Monroe (3 precincts left) is ending up Kelly +4%.

I'm really amazed at how narrow some of these rural margins are for Kelly. Wood +5, Juneau +7, St. Croix +1. Nothing out of Pierce yet but that could easily end up something absurd like Kelly +3 and there's a very outside chance that the Rof could win it.

e: right as I posted Columbia dropped all but two precincts and is Karofsky +16. Her margin is at 95K right now and with so much of Dane out she's easily going to crush 100K.

According to Pierce County's website, this is the result:
Karofsky 4450
Kelly 3623

So about 55.1% Karofsky, which is really good.

Wow, Karofsky was within half of a point of Baldwin's margin here. I assumed that River Falls (and Stout I guess) wouldn't have as much of a student vote due to students being at home.

I almost put in that post that Dunn was still in play if the outstanding vote was in Stout, but I took it out because that was speculative and I was too lazy to look it up. But I guess it was true!