Brown overperformed entirely on incumbency advantage and a dogpoop opponent. As soon has he's gone that seat is closer to Safe R than it is Lean R.
In any race between reasonably average candidates in OH the Republican will be heavily favored. Cordray was a strong candidate (can't get much more
populist than CFPB chair) but not an Obama-tier candidate. The areas of the state that used to be Democratic enough to make the state competitive have turned hard right and 2018 was proof that this is going to be hard to reverse or offset.
