Which Midwestern State are Dems most wrongly overconfident about?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Unpopular pick: Michigan. It's pretty pathetic that the state elected Snyder twice and voted for Trump considering 1) the incredible amount of attention the Obama administration gave to rescuing/restructuring the auto industry in spite of largely Republican opposition and 2) the Flint water crisis (the latter is more for Trump than Snyder obviously).

Republican brand should have been permanently tarnished in the state by 2016, and yet, that year they faced no electoral consequences. I think it's likely that Whitmer wins but long term prospects in this state are not good for Democrats.

but with the letdown in OH-12

ah hofoid, you sly dog

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Wisconsin. Republicans are more likely to win Ohio, but the Democrats aren't as confident about it.

I'm voting Wisconsin. There is no Marquette poll showing Walker significantly behind, and Dem strength is concentrated in Madison/Milwaukee, which doesn't bode well for taking back the legislature.

Ohio is a close second, but with the letdown in OH-12, Cordray would need to win back the Rust Belt-y/Pittsburgh-esque portions of the state, and that ain't happening. Plus, the legislature is gerrymandered to the point that even if Cordray won, he'd be facing a veto-proof majority.

Fortunately for Cordray, OH-12 is well to the right of Ohio as a state, so if DeWine wants to take solace in a less than 1% Balderson win, by all means!

Fortunately for Dewine, the rest of Ohio is considerably less #Resistancy than OH-12.

I think the interesting question for Ohio suburbs will be metro Cincy.

Idk what #Resistancy is supposed to mean, but if you’re implying OH-12 is #Resistancy, then Ohio as a state might as well just put on a pussy hat and grab a bullhorn and go to one of the rallies. Sherrod Brown lost it by 8 points in 2012, fwiw.

Yeah that statement puzzled me, too. If suburbs = "#Resistancy" then Republicans are going to get annihilated this year.