I hate to say it but i think its going to Washington.
I really like Maria Cantwell but i dont think washington does. so i think this could be a nailbiter like 2000. I am not impressed with the republican candidate but thats politics republicans usually elect jerks that win; talent, santorum, demint, chambliss etc.
Her approval rating is a joke as she has finally put the sock in ted stevens mouth. I hope she wins but i am a bit nervous on this one.
How exactly is Talent a jerk? The others you listed are obvious, but I didn't follow the MO Senate race in 2002 very closely.
Oh, and I expect AZ and VA to be closer than expected.