Since I know there was a similar map made for the 2012 election, is there any chance we could get a swing map between the two? I imagine it would track pretty much with affluent and educated communities generally swinging to Clinton and poorer and less-educated communities swinging to Trump, but I'd be curious to know if there are any exceptions.
It's doable in a sense, but as reagente pointed out, we used different ways of generating our maps. Because 2012 was simple enough in terms of a two-way model, I just focused on calculating Obama's share of the white vote directly (due to the fact that in most places, Romney's share would be ([Obama's share] - 1pt). 2016 was more complex and the way reagente did his makes more sense. We also presumably used different data-sets/combinations of data to make our maps.
Nevertheless, I could pretty easily generate a map that shows the difference between Obama and Clinton's shares of the white vote. It should be pretty accurate in the vast majority of cases, but as I've already noticed, we were in disagreement in some select counties based on the margin difference in them.
So this is the closest thing we can get to that: a simple comparison of the white vote share for Obama and Clinton between the two models. Here's the interactive map. Several of the areas that seem out-of-place I know are the result of the models' differences (for instance, my model is probably the one that is off in Clayton, GA & Imperial, CA).
Red counties/negative numbers indicate Clinton improved over Obama among whites; blue counties/positive numbers indicate Clinton did more poorly than Obama among whites. Numbers are shown as percentage point differences (i.e. Obama got 46% of whites and Clinton got 32% = "14").
I don't believe the white vote swung that heavily towards Trump in Philadelphia or Prince George's County MD. Otherwise the black vote would have almost had to swing towards Clinton there, which doesn't sound very likely to me.
