LimoLiberal's Official State Legislative Special Elections Prediction Thread

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

We ran a democrat in suburban AL who spent $2k and was kind of a nobody vs a well-known local Republican sheriff who spent $50k and the democrat outperformed Hillary by about 20%

This is despite Ivey being an extremely popular governor and no local factor hurting republicans / helping democrats in Alabama

Also, even in Connecticut, where Malloy has a 25% approval rating, dems are doing about the same as Hillary.


I guarantee you that dems get at least two seats here. Probably the Obama-Trump one and AD-10.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

You got AZ-08 wrong by over 10, VA-Gov wrong by 10, AL-Senate wrong by over 10


Great job on getting your predictions wrong by 7 this one time. Do you want a cake?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Let's see how my predictions jived with the actual results:

Chart shows my predicted margin, the actual margin, and how far off my prediction was.

SD-32: D+89, D+87 - R+2
SD-37: D+15, D+15 - ND
AD-5: R+18, R+26 - R+8
AD-10: D+8, D+18 - D+10
AD-17: R+10, R+27 - R+17
AD-39: UNOPPOSED
AD-74: D+68, D+85 - D+17
AD-80: D+68, D+63 - R+5
AD-102: R+12, R+2 - D+10
AD-107: R+2, R+2 - ND
AD-142: R+2, R+4 - R+2

My predictions were off by an average of 7.1 points - which although large, is great for state legislative special elections which tend to be wildly unpredictable. Most impressive, I called each pickup for each party (AD-10 for Ds and AD-142 for Rs), and also predicted the strength of the third-party candidate in AD-102. Notable misses came in the AD-5 and AD-17, each Long Island seats where underfunded Democratic candidates underperformed Clinton-Trump numbers bigly. Of course, certain posters on this forum laughed at me when I mentioned the lack of funding and lack of facebook enthusiasm that each of these candidates had.

All in all, stellar predictions despite repeated accusations of concern-trolling.

You forgot this one:

I have a gut feeling the Republican is going to win, or make it a close-ish race

The Democrat won by 50 points.

Lmao, that's a good one.

Seriously why is this kid getting an ego now? He would do well with some humility. I've gotten pretty much every federal election prediction in the past year wrong by less than 4 (Al-Senate and AZ-08 were my worst where I predicted Moore by 2 & Lesko by 8 ), but you don't see me bragging everywhere (I guess this post is sort of a brag, but I admitted I predicted Moore would win lol).

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

You got AZ-08 wrong by over 10, VA-Gov wrong by 10, AL-Senate wrong by over 10


Great job on getting your predictions wrong by 7

Actually he got Alabama wrong by 30 points, lol.

Bumping by prediction up to 60-33 Moore due to recent events including Jones' disastrous racist mailer, Jones' support for abortion, and the exposure of the forgery of the yearbook signature.

Jesus christ. How do you get a race wrong by 35 points?