Why Is Delaware Blue?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

If both parties move to the left, I could see Delaware becoming purple.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

If both parties move to the left, I could see Delaware becoming purple.

So it's one of those "moderate Democrat" states like Florida or Pennsylvania?

I am not sure if either of those comparisons work, but delaware seems to produce a lot of dems who are somewhat moderate and i believe the corporate taxes there are quite low.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It’s the northern state with the second-highest black population. I don’t know why it being solidly D would be surprising. Ohio would be solidly D if it were 21% black, too.

This is another example of the typical fallacy of only thinking about the white voters in a state.

Actually, Trump would have won Ohio if the electorate was 21% black. The electorate is already 14% black.

Also, Mike Castle is an example of a Republican that won statewide in Delaware many times... until he lost the primary to the witch.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It’s the northern state with the second-highest black population. I don’t know why it being solidly D would be surprising. Ohio would be solidly D if it were 21% black, too.

This is another example of the typical fallacy of only thinking about the white voters in a state.

Actually, Trump would have won Ohio if the electorate was 21% black. The electorate is already 14% black.

Also, Mike Castle is an example of a Republican that won statewide in Delaware many times... until he lost the primary to the witch.

Ohio is only 12% black, and I guarantee you the electorate is closer to 11% black (under-18s are disproportionately black, around 18%, and it's pretty obvious from precinct results that black turnout is slightly lower than white turnout, other than in 2008-2012). Don't care what an exit poll says; they're largely bullsh**t reverse-engineered to match the final results such that the crosstabs are totally valueless.

Ah, that makes sense.

However, my point still stands that you can still win a heavily miniority state. Larry Hogan won Maryland by just getting massively high margins among white people (and lower black turnout because of miniorities). Obviously that's an extreme example, but Delaware is a lot less black than Maryland, and moderate Republican Mike Castle was able to easily win Delaware a bunch of times.