How likely is Colorado to vote for Obama?

[Jacobtm]

Polls seem to be showing that even before national campaigning has begun in earnest, Colorado has gone from voting for George Bush in '04 to favoring Obama in '08. Is such a swing and indication of the fact that everyone already knows Obama and McCain well enough through the media, and once Obama became the nominee, Colorado has just decided they like him better than McCain? Is Colorado solid Obama country?

Or is this just a love-affair with an optimistic sounding politician that could be destroyed by a few ads tarnishing Obama's reputation? Does Colorado really have so fluid an electorate to go from Bush by 5 to Obama by 5 in 4 years?

[Jacobtm]

I don't really understand the idea that being from a neighboring state really helps. Even unconciously, do you really think that someone from State A would vote for someone from State B just because A and B share a border? If the candidate represents values that are common across a region that's a different story, but just being from a certain state doesn't seem like it should matter much at all...