Cain's biggest advantage...

[Jacobtm]

Cain, by virtue of not being seen as a real candidate, was never attacked. He was in fact applauded by many other candidates, who thought that he had no shot but they could be seen as looking good by allying themselves with a businessman.

He is a maniac, perhaps farther from the mainstream than Ron Paul, and once attacks begin on him and people realize how absolutely radical and ignorant he is, he will wilt, much like Palin.

But the fact remains that he has always had very high favorability ratings and low name recognition, meaning that he has a large amount of room to grow as more people hear about him. That is, until people stop viewing him as an affable guy with no shot and start viewing him as a serious contender who needs to be pressed on issues.

[Jacobtm]

To be clear, Cain's advantage of high favorability mixed with low name-recognition is not simmilar to what Perry enjoyed during/before his honeymoon. Cain has long had better favorability numbers than ANY other Republican, as early as May. It really is enigmatic.



Nate Silver wrote 2 posts in May about Cain:

The Simple Case For Taking Herman Cain Seriously

And

The Not-So-Simple Case For Taking Herman Cain Seriously

Some gems from May:

''In a field where the three insider favorites to win the race — Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, and Jon Huntsman — collectively poll at just 25 percent, and where some Republicans seem to be pining for an outsider (perhaps even outside-the-box) choice, he’s the freshest face. Although his credentials as an elected official are obviously nonexistent, that also means he has less baggage to run from.''

''Candidates with electoral resumes as thin as Mr. Cain’s have very poor track records. But none of them have polling that was as impressive as Mr. Cain’s.
Candidates with polling that looks like Mr. Cain’s — with numbers in the high single digits or low double digits despite very low name recognition — have an exceptionally good track record. But all of them were far more credentialed than Mr. Cain.''

''In the post-reform primary era (1972 onward), there’s never really been a candidate that combined such limited name recognition, such underwhelming credentials — and such impressive polling.''

[Jacobtm]

Depends when Iowa happens. There are 4 more debates before January.

http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-debate-schedule/2011-2012-primary-debate-schedule/

[Jacobtm]

I'd say one of the three things willl happen(all equally likely)

Cain wins nomination. Cain's flavor of the month successor wins nomination. Romney wins nomination because anti-Romney's can't reach a consensus.

You give Romney the same odds as Cain and Candidate x?

I gotta give Romney at least 50-50 odds. Romney or someone else.