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June 02, 2024, 07:45:54 AM
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kph14
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Posts: 444
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« on: August 02, 2020, 06:41:15 PM »

Note that this remainder district is actually a Safe Republican district (in the order of Trump+15). However the district is also firmly Hispanic, even by CVAP (around 58%). So whether this counts or not is an open question, though it probably doesn't.

Yeah that's the tricky thing about the VRA as it relates to Latinos, particularly in Texas; the majority of Mexican-Americans will vote for Democrats, but a substantial minority, particularly in the RGV, vote Republican. The result is that for the district to actually elect the Latino candidate of choice, the Latino % has to be fairly high (without packing) so that Whites won't select their preferred candidate with the support of the 20-30% of Hispanics who will prefer the Republican.
That sounds like partisan gerrymandering.  VRA seats should qualify so long as that group has a clear majority of the electorate.  If republicans are able to appeal to a substantial portion of the hispanic electorate, that isn't a failure of the district, it's a failure of the Democratic party.  The current TX-23 was upheld in court even though the candidate that wins the hispanic vote isn't guaranteed to win.  Hispanics still are a majority of the electorate and a candidate can't win without a significant portion of hispanic votes. 

The turnout differential between rural whites and rural hispanics is enormous though. That's also a factor helping Republicans in your district
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