2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (UPDATED)

[kph14]

SD-6 is a marginal Republican-held seat that includes the territory of HD-42 above (perhaps explaining why only one candidate filed there) plus the rest of Smyrna, bits of Cobb County connecting it to Fulton County, north Atlanta and Sandy Springs. It could very plausibly vote for a Democrat and is easily the most competitive seat, although it is unclear to me how serious any of the Democratic candidates are. I would call it a Toss-up.

I'd rate GA-SD6 Lean D. The district went 55-40 Clinton and the incumbent State Senator barely eked out a 52-48 victory in 2016. The Democratic nominee is running again, as well as a second serious Democratic candidate. With five Republican candidates running even a D v. D - runoff is possible

[kph14]

HD-117 is a very safe Republican seat covering what might be called exurbs of Athens in Barrow and Jackson Counties and suburbs of Athens in Oconee County. All Democratic attention nearby will be elsewhere. Safe R and will be decided in the jungle as there are only two candidates (one Democrat and one Republican).
HD-119 is a likely Republican seat that takes some of the more marginal parts of Athens and attaches them to rural Oconee County (the most suburban parts of Oconee, which are also moving sharply towards the Democrats, are gerrymandered into HD-117). Plausibly could be competitive in this environment but probably will not be. Likely R, Democrat should make it to the runoff as there are three Republicans and only one Democrat.

Interestingly, the last presidential election would imply the opposite scenario. HD-117 was 49-46 Trump and HD-119 was 51-44 Trump. Can you explain the discrepancy between those up-ballot results and your ratings?