538 model & poll tracker thread

[redjohn]

A KY average has just been generated: Trump +17.4%.

Taking a glance at their 2016 forecast, which had Trump leading by 12.3% at this time in 2016.

Trump ended up winning by 29.8%.

[redjohn]

A model dropping one candidate's chances by 3% due to polls shifting in that candidate's favor seems... sketchy.

[redjohn]

Something interesting I just noticed on the 538 model is that IA is now forecasted to have Trump's best margin out of the swing states:

- Iowa: Trump+3.6
- Texas: Trump+3.5
- Georgia: Trump+2.7
- Ohio: Trump+0.9

With these numbers, Trump has literally no room for error. I have a gut feeling the GA and TX numbers are too favorable for Trump, given the swings we saw in 2016 and 2018. 538's poll average has Trump ahead by just 0.8% in TX and by 1.5% in GA. If Biden over-performs even slightly, you can say goodbye to any hopes of flipping MN/NH/NV, let alone holding the states he won by a hair in 2016. TX and GA will be gone, and there is no plausible way for Trump to make that up anywhere else.

[redjohn]

Biden takes the lead in the GA forecast for the first time this cycle.

[redjohn]

By my calculations, this is where Biden becomes "clearly favored."

He'll keep rising a bit each day probably. I guess the reason we've barely seen movement in the past few days is we've received barely any polling.

[redjohn]

Giving Trump a 12% chance of winning is extremely generous with the brewing landslide defeat we're seeing reflected in polls and public opinion. His chance right now is far worse than it ever was in 2016.